This site benefits/suffers/both from consisting of posts about a wide range of topics, all linked under the amorphous heading “data-driven storytelling.”
In an attempt to impose some coherent structure, I am organizing related posts both chronologically and thematically.
Given that I have multiple degrees in political science, with an emphasis on American politics, it is not surprising that I have written a few dozen posts in that field…and that is where I begin.
I started by writing about the 2016 elections, many based on my own state-partisanship metric (which I validate here).
Here are a few posts about presidential polling (before FiveThirtyEight jumped on the bandwagon)…
…and the 2017 special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District (GA-6)
Using GA-6 polls to discuss statistical significance testing (spoiler: I am not a fan)
And then I started looking ahead to 2018…first to control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”). Note that posts are often cross-generic…
I debut my simple forecast model (June 2017)
A followup March 2018 update (after which I stopped writing about the 2018 House elections)
…then the United States Senate
…and, finally, races for governor in 2017 AND 2018.
A tangentially-related post may be found here.
After Labor Day 2018, I developed models (based on “fundamentals” and polls) to “forecast” the Senate elections…
…and those for governor (the October 23 post addressed both sets of races)
These culminated in…
And my own assessment of how I did (spoiler: not half bad)
Finally, there are other politics posts that defy easy categorization.
Until next time…