This site benefits/suffers/both from consisting of posts about a wide range of topics, all linked under the amorphous heading “data-driven storytelling.”
In an attempt to impose some coherent structure, I am organizing related posts both chronologically and thematically.
Given that I have multiple degrees in political science, with an emphasis on American politics, it is not surprising that I have written a few dozen posts in that field…and that is where I begin.
I started by writing about the 2016 elections, many based on my own state-partisanship metric (which I validate here).
The absurdity of the Democratic “blue wall” in the Electoral College
Hillary Clinton’s performance in five key states (IA, MI, OH, PA, WI)
Why Democrats should look to the south (east and west)
How having (or not) a college degree impacted voting
An alternative argument about gerrymandering
An early foray into what I call “Clinton derangement”
The only statistic from 2016 that really matters
Here are a few posts about presidential polling (before FiveThirtyEight jumped on the bandwagon)…
Be careful interpreting President Trump’s approval polls
…and the 2017 special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District (GA-6)
Ossoff and the future of the Democratic Party
Using GA-6 polls to discuss statistical significance testing (spoiler: I am not a fan)
And then I started looking ahead to 2018…first to control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”). Note that posts are often cross-generic…
An alternative argument about gerrymandering
The impact of voting to repeal (and not replace) Obamacare (May 2017)
I debut my simple forecast model (June 2017)
Making more points about polls and probability
A followup March 2018 update (after which I stopped writing about the 2018 House elections)
…then the United States Senate
What it meant that the Senate voted NOT to repeal Obamacare in July 2017
…and, finally, races for governor in 2017 AND 2018.
A tangentially-related post may be found here.
After Labor Day 2018, I developed models (based on “fundamentals” and polls) to “forecast” the Senate elections…
…and those for governor (the October 23 post addressed both sets of races)
These culminated in…
And my own assessment of how I did (spoiler: not half bad)
Speaking of assessments, I took a long look at my partisan lean measure here.
And I carefully examined some polling aggregation assumptions here.
Beginning in April 2019, I turned my attention to the 2020 elections.
First came a wicked early look at the relative standings of the dozens of women and men actually or potentially seeking the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination:
Then came a wicked early look at the 2020 presidential election itself.
And, of course, a wicked early look at races for Senate (2020) and governor (2019-20).
With a post-Labor-Day update. Which I followed with an October update.
With the first of regular updates to both the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and the 2020 presidential election in May 2019
This post both set up the first Democratic debates and had good news for Democrats looking ahead to 2020.
This post set up the second Democratic debates and drew some conclusions about who “won” and “lost” the first debates.
This post updated the data for August 2019 and drew some conclusions about who “won” and “lost” the second debates.
Ditto for September 2019, October 2019, November 2019, December 2019, January 2020
Once voting commenced in the 2020 Democratic presidentil nomination process, I wrote posts specific to the
- Iowa Caucuses (Final WAPA, assessment)
- New Hampshire Primary (Final WAPA, assessment)
- Nevada Caucuses (Final WAPA, assessment)
- South Carolina Primary (Final WAPA, assessment)
- Super Tuesday (Final WAPA)
- March 10 (Final WAPA)
- March 17 (Final WAPA)
As for the 2020 general election:
- Here is the view one year in advance
- Here is the view six months in advance, in much more detail.
- Here is the view three months in advance, with similar detail.
- Here is the view two months in advance, with similar detail.
- Here is the view as the debates begin, with similar detail.
- Here is the view after two “debates,” with similar detail.
- Finally, I provided detailed “cheat sheets.”
I also weighed into the question of who former Vice President Joe Biden should name as his vice-presidential running mate.
Shortly after the elections, I wrote a comprehensive summary of the elections, including assessing my own projections.
I then analyzed the not-so-changing geography of U.S. Elections.
And three assessments of Emerson College polls (one, two, three). Another one in 2022.
And one comparison of Emerson polling to that of Quinnipiac University.
As for the 2022 elections:
- I took a very early look at Republican likelihood of regaining the House here.
- I took a wicked early look at 2021 and 2022 governor’s races here.
- I took a wicked early look at 2022 Senate races here.
- I updated the 2021 governor’s race outlook with just two weeks to go.
- Then again on the day of the election…after which I reflected on how – well – I did.
- Returning to the 2022 elections, I took a deep into generic ballot polling.
- On Labor Day, I took a more intensive look.
- I then rethought how I calculate polling margins of error.
- Simulations were the next step
- Followed by rethinking some assumptions
- I learned candidate quality still matters
- Then pondered the return of split-ticket voters
- And questioned the nature of partisan polling surges
- Which I used to suggest Democrats had little to fear on Halloween 2022.
- Finally, my final projections
- Two weeks after Election Day comes the first post-mortem
- Followed less than two weeks comes the second and final post-mortem
Finally, there are other politics posts that defy easy categorization.
I indulged in some speculative alternative history about the presidential elections of 1948 and 2000.
I delineated issue differences between Democrats and Republicans.
I got a bit personal here and here, concluding with the fact that, despite overlapping in the same residential college at Yale for two years, I did NOT know Associate Justice Brett Kavanagh at all.
I argued for the abolition of the Electoral College…then observed the advantage Republicans have in it.
I mourned the deaths of John McCain, George H.W. Bush and Walter Mondale.
Until next time…
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