2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1)

I first previewed 2022 United States midterm elections, which ended on November 8, 2022, in three June 2021 essays. First, I updated my single-variable model of elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”). In the second and third essays, I took a “wicked early” look at, respectively, the 36 elections for governor and … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1) →

2022 Elections Update: Final Projections

On October 31, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 22 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Final Projections →

2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear

On October 24, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 26 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear →

2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt

On October 17, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt →

2022 Elections Update: Candidate Quality Still Matters

On October 3, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 13 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Candidate Quality Still Matters →

2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments?

On September 26, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 14 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments? →

2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations

On September 19, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations →

2022 Elections Update: Rethinking polling margins of error

On Labor Day 2022, I published my first set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate and 36 elections for governor. In the ensuing two weeks, an additional … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Rethinking polling margins of error →

Tracking the generic ballot polls…and those pesky Undecideds

In May 2017, I launched the “A Wicked Early Look” series with an assessment of Democrats’ 2018 election United States Senate (“Senate”) prospects. The next month I wrote an analogous essay about the gubernatorial elections later that November and in 2018. Borrowing a concept from FiveThirtyEight.com forecasting models, I began to calculate what I call … Continue reading Tracking the generic ballot polls…and those pesky Undecideds →

2021 Election Post-Mortem: How much does polling drive turnout?

The final results from the 2021 elections are being counted, but the big picture is clear: Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat – and former governor – Terry McAuliffe in Virginia’s gubernatorial election.Republicans took control of the Virginia House of Delegates.Democratic New Jersey governor Phil Murphy was reelected.Democrats Eric Adams and Michelle Wu will be the … Continue reading 2021 Election Post-Mortem: How much does polling drive turnout? →