Results are still being tabulated in the 2026 elections. As of 1 am EST on November 6, 2026, Democrats have regained the majority in the United States House of Representatives ("House") and Senate, as well as a majority of governors for the first time since 2010. Democrats have thus far won 249 House seats and … Continue reading Forecasting the 2026 Elections: Blog Entries and Graphics
Category: 2026 Elections
Forecasting the 2026 Elections: Three Partisan Scenarios
In the Key 2026 Senate and Governor Elections tables displayed on my homepage, I present three scenarios for projected final Democratic margin: 1) polling averages systematically over-assess Democratic margins by four percentage points (“points”), 2) no systematic error in polling averages and 3) polling averages systematically under-assess Democratic margins by four points. Using colors to … Continue reading Forecasting the 2026 Elections: Three Partisan Scenarios
A 2026 Election Forecasting Primer
With Labor Day in the rearview mirror, we address the elections for United States House of Representatives (“House”), United States Senate (“Senate”) and governor that conclude on November 3, 2026. House. All 435 House seats will be contested. Republicans held a 220-215 edge following the 2024 elections. Democrats need a net gain of three seats … Continue reading A 2026 Election Forecasting Primer
A Wicked Early Look at the 2025 and 2026 Gubernatorial Elections
It is time to take a wicked early look at the 36 American gubernatorial elections scheduled to end on November 3, 2026, plus the two scheduled to end on November 4, 2025. Republicans currently have the edge in governors, 27- 23. If Democrats net win three of these 38 gubernatorial elections, they will hold a … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2025 and 2026 Gubernatorial Elections
A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections
It is time to take a wicked early look at the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) scheduled to end on November 3, 2026. Republicans are defending a 53-45-2 majority, although two Independents – Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont – vote with Democrats to organize the Senate. If Democrats … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections
