I first previewed 2022 United States midterm elections, which ended on November 8, 2022, in three June 2021 essays. First, I updated my single-variable model of elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”). In the second and third essays, I took a “wicked early” look at, respectively, the 36 elections for governor and … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1)
Category: Political parties
2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear
On October 24, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 26 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear
2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt
On October 17, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt
2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns
On October 10, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 15 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns
2022 Elections Update: Candidate Quality Still Matters
On October 3, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 13 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Candidate Quality Still Matters
2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables
I first observed an arithmetic Republican lean in Emerson College (“Emerson”) polling in November 2019. Specifically, Emerson College polling of hypothetical 2020 matchups between leading Democrats (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren) and President Donald J. Trump had shifted 4.7 percentage points (“points”) Republican since September 1, using the Democratic percentage minus the Republican percentage … Continue reading 2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables
Tracking the generic ballot polls…and those pesky Undecideds
In May 2017, I launched the “A Wicked Early Look” series with an assessment of Democrats’ 2018 election United States Senate (“Senate”) prospects. The next month I wrote an analogous essay about the gubernatorial elections later that November and in 2018. Borrowing a concept from FiveThirtyEight.com forecasting models, I began to calculate what I call … Continue reading Tracking the generic ballot polls…and those pesky Undecideds
A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022
In two recent posts, I… Determined it was fairly likely Republicans will regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022Examined the “fundamentals” underlying Democrats’ prospects in the 38 gubernatorial elections in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and 2022, landing tentatively on between a net loss of one and a net gain of … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022
A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022
In a recent post, I assessed it was fairly likely Republicans regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022. In this post, I turn my attention to the two gubernatorial elections to be held in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022. My goal … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022
The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
On November 3, 2020, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected president and vice president, respectively, of the United States. According to data from Dave Leip’s essential Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, the Biden-Harris ticket won 51.3% of the nearly 158.6 million votes cast. Turnout shattered the previous record of 137.1 million votes cast … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
Just Bear With Me... 