A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022

In two recent posts, I… Determined it was fairly likely Republicans will regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022 Examined the “fundamentals” underlying Democrats’ prospects in the 38 gubernatorial elections in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and 2022, landing tentatively on between a net loss of one and a net gainContinue reading “A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022”

A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022

In a recent post, I assessed it was fairly likely Republicans regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022. In this post, I turn my attention to the two gubernatorial elections to be held in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022. My goalContinue reading “A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022”

How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?

On March 31, 2021, nearly five months after Election Day 2020, Democrat Rita Hart finally conceded to Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District (“CD”), dropping her challenge to her six-vote loss. This was a net win for the Republicans, as United States House of Representatives (“House”) Member Dave Loebsack, a Democrat, had notContinue reading “How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?”

The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections

On November 3, 2020, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected president and vice president, respectively, of the United States. According to data from Dave Leip’s essential Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, the Biden-Harris ticket won 51.3% of the nearly 158.6 million votes cast. Turnout shattered the previous record of 137.1 million votes castContinue reading “The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections”

2020 Elections Post-Mortem

On November 3, 2020, the United States ended a weeks-long electoral process. At stake was the presidency, control of the United States Senate (“Senate”) and House of Representatives (“House”), 11 governor’s mansions, and thousands of state and local offices. That day, I published “cheat sheets” to guide election viewers through state-level presidential returns, 35 SenateContinue reading “2020 Elections Post-Mortem”

Your 2020 Election Cheat Sheets

Election Day 2020 has finally arrived. More accurately, the end of election season comes today, as over 100 million Americans have already voted. To help guide you through the coming hours of media coverage, I have attached two PDFs. The first one allows you to track the results of the presidential election. For my lastContinue reading “Your 2020 Election Cheat Sheets”

Quinnipiac University and Emerson College: Mirror-image pollsters?

In three earlier posts—most recently here—I analyzed all polls conducted by Emerson College (“Emerson”) of 2020 presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial elections. I found that they had a clear bias towards the Republican candidate, on average, compared to all other polls of the same election. As I continue to analyze polls of the presidential election betweenContinue reading “Quinnipiac University and Emerson College: Mirror-image pollsters?”

October 2020 update: Democratic control of the Senate looks increasingly likely

Democrats are poised to do extremely well when voting concludes on November 3, 2020—just 16 days from now; as I write this, more than 26.5 million votes have already been cast, which is 19% of the total 2016 turnout. They are a near-lock to continue to have a majority of members of the United StatesContinue reading “October 2020 update: Democratic control of the Senate looks increasingly likely”

Biden is now the clear favorite to win the 2020 presidential election

On November 3, 2020, a weeks-long presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will end. As I write this, more than 23 million Americans—including yours truly—have already cast their ballots. This number is just over 1/6 of total votes cast in 2016. FollowingContinue reading “Biden is now the clear favorite to win the 2020 presidential election”

As the 2020 presidential debates begin, Biden maintains a solid lead

On November 3, 2020, a weeks-long presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will end. In fact, as I write this, more than 1 million Americans have already cast their ballots. With the first presidential debate scheduled to begin at 9 pm ESTContinue reading “As the 2020 presidential debates begin, Biden maintains a solid lead”