2021 Election Post-Mortem: How much does polling drive turnout?

The final results from the 2021 elections are being counted, but the big picture is clear: Republican Glenn Youngkin defeated Democrat – and former governor – Terry McAuliffe in Virginia’s gubernatorial election.Republicans took control of the Virginia House of Delegates.Democratic New Jersey governor Phil Murphy was reelected.Democrats Eric Adams and Michelle Wu will be the … Continue reading 2021 Election Post-Mortem: How much does polling drive turnout?

The 2021 Virginia governor’s race will be a nail-biter

The 2021 elections end later today, November 2. For background on the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia – including how I calculate polling averages - please see here and here. I made two minor adjustments since then: all polls with a field midpoint of October 1 or later are given a weight of … Continue reading The 2021 Virginia governor’s race will be a nail-biter

How does it look for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia with just two weeks to go?

The 2021 elections end on November 2. New Jersey and Virginia are electing governors, while Boston and New York City will elect new mayors. Michelle Wu appears to be well-ahead of Annissa Essaibi George in a race between two Boston Democrats, while Democrat Eric Adams is a near-lock to be elected New York City’s second … Continue reading How does it look for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia with just two weeks to go?

Measuring the Unmeasurable: Ranking One’s Favorite Music, Part II

In late June, I wrote the first in a series of essays outlining the evolution of the methods I use to rank my favorite tracks (a term I prefer to “songs”), beginning with my first-ever mix cassette tape in August 1981. In the interim, however, moving to a new apartment, the ongoing search for a … Continue reading Measuring the Unmeasurable: Ranking One’s Favorite Music, Part II

When Failure Is Success…And Vice Versa

It was likely in 2001 – though it may have been just after I moved into my new apartment in the Philadelphia suburb of King of Prussia in February 2003 – I received this handsome piece of engraved metal from my more off-than-on-again girlfriend. When I first read the question, I tried earnestly answer it … Continue reading When Failure Is Success…And Vice Versa

Measuring the Unmeasurable: Ranking One’s Favorite Music, Part 1

I recently updated a data-based discussion of my cinematic “guilty pleasures,” adding a comparison of “most-acclaimed” and “my favorite” films from a given year or years. In so doing, though, I side-stepped the question of determining with something approaching academic rigor just what my favorite films are, relying solely on my gut to select a … Continue reading Measuring the Unmeasurable: Ranking One’s Favorite Music, Part 1

How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?

On March 31, 2021, nearly five months after Election Day 2020, Democrat Rita Hart finally conceded to Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District (“CD”), dropping her challenge to her six-vote loss. This was a net win for the Republicans, as United States House of Representatives (“House”) Member Dave Loebsack, a Democrat, had not … Continue reading How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?

Measuring Film Quality: Revisiting “Guilty Pleasures”

In February 2019, I posed a deceptively simple question: What makes a pleasure “guilty?” To answer this question, I focused on films, specifically those I had seen multiple times. I gathered publicly-available data on these movies in order to assess how these films were regarded by both critics and fans. At that time, there were … Continue reading Measuring Film Quality: Revisiting “Guilty Pleasures”

Finding The Worst Character In Neo-Noir: Let The Voting Begin!

WARNING: Spoilers ahead!! In two previous posts, I… Introduced two metrics, POINTS and Opportunity-Adjusted POINTS (“OAP”), to rank films by how often they are cited as “neo-noir,” allowing for how many reputable authors on film noir could have listed them.Selected 64 characters as contenders for “worst character in neo-noir.” These 64 characters are evenly distributed … Continue reading Finding The Worst Character In Neo-Noir: Let The Voting Begin!

The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections

On November 3, 2020, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected president and vice president, respectively, of the United States. According to data from Dave Leip’s essential Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, the Biden-Harris ticket won 51.3% of the nearly 158.6 million votes cast. Turnout shattered the previous record of 137.1 million votes cast … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections