On December 1, 2022, Sight and Sound Magazine released the results of its decennial Greatest Films of All Time Critics’ Poll (“SS Poll”). The key result is that Jeanne Dielman, 23 quai du Commerce, 1080 Bruxelles dethroned Vertigo as the “greatest film of all time.”[1] Vertigo had itself dethroned Citizen Kane 10 years earlier. I … Continue reading My 100 Favorite Films…Probably
Category: Statistical reasonsing
2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2)
A few days ago, I took our golden retriever Casper to a local park for a long run. It was late at night – or, rather, early in the morning – so we had the park virtually to ourselves. I used a Chuckit! to fling an oversized tennis ball against a high chain link fence … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2)
2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1)
I first previewed 2022 United States midterm elections, which ended on November 8, 2022, in three June 2021 essays. First, I updated my single-variable model of elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”). In the second and third essays, I took a “wicked early” look at, respectively, the 36 elections for governor and … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1)
2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns
On October 10, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 15 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns
2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments?
On September 26, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 14 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments?
2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations
On September 19, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations
2022 Elections Update: Rethinking polling margins of error
On Labor Day 2022, I published my first set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate and 36 elections for governor. In the ensuing two weeks, an additional … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Rethinking polling margins of error
2022 Elections: The View from Labor Day
It has been more than a year since I first addressed the 2022 elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”) and Senate (“Senate”), as well as for governor. In June 2021, the political outlook was dire for Democrats, as I concluded it was extremely likely they would lose their majority in the House, … Continue reading 2022 Elections: The View from Labor Day
2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables
I first observed an arithmetic Republican lean in Emerson College (“Emerson”) polling in November 2019. Specifically, Emerson College polling of hypothetical 2020 matchups between leading Democrats (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren) and President Donald J. Trump had shifted 4.7 percentage points (“points”) Republican since September 1, using the Democratic percentage minus the Republican percentage … Continue reading 2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables
Listen, you mug!
I have repeatedly sung the praises of the Film Noir Foundation (“FNF”) on this website. Its steadfast devotion to rescuing, preserving and restoring vital pieces of our shared cultural heritage is exemplary. The annual NOIR CITY festival has been an essential part of my own film noir “personal journey,” even if I have not attended … Continue reading Listen, you mug!
Just Bear With Me... 