On October 10, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 15 generic ballot polls – which I use to estimate the probability Democrats retain their House majority – have been released, along with 39 new Senate polls and 30 new governor’s race polls.
Thirteen states (Table 1) are holding both a Senate and a gubernatorial election in 2022 where at least two publicly-available polls have been conducted since September 5 (Labor Day).
Table 1: Republican, undecided polling averages for Senator and governor in 13 states
| Election | Senate | Governor | Difference |
| Arizona | |||
| Republican | 42.2% | 46.7% | Gov+4.5 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 9.3% | 7.2% | Sen+2.2 |
| Colorado | |||
| Republican | 40.3% | 37.5% | Sen+2.8 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 12.0% | 10.0% | Sen+2.0 |
| Connecticut | |||
| Republican | 39.8% | 39.7% | Sen+0.1 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 8.0% | 7.6% | Sen+0.4 |
| Florida | |||
| Republican | 47.8% | 49.9% | Gov+2.1 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 9.5% | 6.5% | Sen+3.0 |
| Georgia | |||
| Republican | 44.6% | 50.7% | Gov+6.1 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 7.9% | 4.7% | Sen+3.2 |
| Iowa | |||
| Republican | 49.6% | 55.9% | Gov+6.3 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 9.5% | 7.2% | Sen+2.3 |
| Nevada | |||
| Republican | 45.6% | 45.1% | Sen+0.5 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 11.7% | 11.9% | Gov+0.2 |
| New Hampshire | |||
| Republican | 42.7% | 53.3% | Gov+10.6 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 7.7% | 10.1% | Gov+2.4 |
| New York | |||
| Republican | 33.8% | 41.0% | Gov+7.2 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 11.6% | 8.2% | Sen+3.4 |
| Ohio | |||
| Republican | 44.9% | 52.9% | Gov+8.0 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 9.9% | 11.0% | Gov+2.1 |
| Oklahoma (average Senate) | |||
| Republican | 51.0% | 44.9% | Sen+6.1 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 13.4% | 13.9% | Gov+0.5 |
| Pennsylvania | |||
| Republican | 42.8% | 40.9% | Sen+1.9 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 9.6% | 8.9% | Sen+0.7 |
| Wisconsin | |||
| Republican | 49.1% | 47.0% | Sen+2.1 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 4.5% | 5.8% | Gov+1.3 |
| OVERALL | |||
| Republican | 44.2% | 46.6% | Gov+2.4 |
| 3rd Party/Undecided | 9.6% | 8.7% | Sen+0.9 |
On average, Republican candidates for governor – including prohibitive favorites to win reelection in Florida, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire and Ohio – outpoll their Senate counterparts by 2.4 percentage points (“points”), 46.6% to 44.2%, polling ahead in just over half (7) of these 13 states, by an average of 6.4 points. This includes New York, where Republican House Member Lee Zeldin is tallying a solid 41.0% against (unelected) incumbent Democratic governor Kathy Hochul. In Arizona, meanwhile, television personality Kari Lake, the Republican running for the open governor’s mansion –– polls 4.5 points better than venture capitalist Blake Masters, who is struggling against incumbent Senator Mark Kelly.
Of the four states in which the Republican Senate candidate is polling higher (excluding the non-ticket-splitting Connecticut and Nevada), the largest gap is in Oklahoma – the only state in which Republican nominees for Senate (one incumbent, one open) are over 50%, on average – suggesting incumbent Republican Governor Kevin Stitt may be in trouble; there is significant volatility in all three elections, with nearly 14% of the electorate not yet choosing a Democrat or a Republican. The next-largest gap is in Colorado, where neither Republican nominee polls well against popular incumbents, followed by Wisconsin – where incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson appears poised to win reelection – and Pennsylvania – where Republican nominees are struggling to gain traction against popular Democrats in open seats.
Not only are Republican Senate candidates generally running behind their gubernatorial counterparts, their races are also a bit more volatile, with slightly more of the electorate not choosing either the Democrat or the Republican in the former (9.6%) than in the latter. (8.7%). The gap is twice as large (1.6%) in the five states where Republican incumbent governors are outpolling their Senate counterparts, including incumbent Senators Marco Rubio in Florida (2.1 points) and Chuck Grassley in Iowa (6.3).
This brings us to Georgia, New Hampshire and Ohio, in which popular, less-Trumpy Republican governors average 52.3% in post-Labor-Day polling while their Senate counterparts average just 44.1%. This 8.2-point gap strongly indicates the type of voters struggling to decide in key Senate races – voters who traditionally vote Republican and likely want to cast a protest vote against the Biden Administration, but are turned off by the extremism and lack of experience of, respectively, former National Football League star Herschel Walker, former Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc and venture capitalist J.D. Vance. But it also means pollsters are not somehow “missing” Republican-leaning voters. In fact, these voters may hold the key to the 2022 elections: only about 8.5% of the electorate appears to be up for grabs in these states, so whether these “conflicted Republicans” ultimately choose their traditional voting histories could be decisive.
***********
The House. As of October 16, 2022, I estimate Democrats lead Republicans on the generic ballot by 0.3 points, 44.5% to 44.0%. Based upon this value, I estimate the probability Democrats retain a House majority is 29.7%. This is a slight increase of 1.4 points in one week. I estimate Democrats will lose 9.5 seats, putting them at 212 or 213 (compared to 222 following the 2020 elections), with a 95% confidence interval of -31.2 to +11.6.
Using only the 72 generic ballot polls conducted entirely after Labor Day, though, Democrats lead by 1.0 points, 45.6% to 44.5%, which equates to a 36.2% chance of retaining their House majority and an average loss of 7.5 seats (95% CI: -29.2 to +13.5). These values are essentially unchanged since last week. For Democrats to be nominal favorites to retain their House majority (p>50%), they need to win nationally by at least 2.3 points.
These probability and seat estimates are well in line with those from FiveThirtyEight.com, whose probabilities range from 29% (Deluxe) to 36% (Classic), with 215 seats assigned >50% probability of being won by the Democrat in the methodologically-conservative Deluxe model. However, if Democrats win every seat with probability≥40%, they maintain a bare House majority across all three models.
Bottom line: A narrow House Republican majority remains more likely than not, with Democrats’ position holding steady.
***********
The Senate. As of October 16, 2022, 343 publicly-available Senate election polls have been conducted since November 1, 2021. These include five polls assessing the likely final matchup between two Republicans in Alaska: incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski and former state official Kelly Tshibaka; Murkowski currently edges Tshibaka 51.7% to 48.3%. Only the Senate elections in Hawaii – which incumbent Democrat Brian Schatz is a near-lock to win – and in Alabama, Idaho and North Dakota – which Republicans Katie Britt, Michael Crapo and John Hoeven, respectively, are near-locks to win – do not yet have publicly-available polling.
Table 2 shows updated projections for all 35 Senate elections. I made two changes to how I calculate polling weight. One, I adjust for “pollster quality,” as determined by FiveThirtyEight.com, by using the square root of the average letter-grade divided by 4.3. For example, the 27 Arizona Senate race polls average a pollster rating of 2.9, or B/B-. Dividing 2.9/4.3 gives you 0.668, and the square root of 0.668 is 0.817. Two, I multiply final polling weight by 0.95 to keep it below 1.00. This had the effect of lowering polling weight slightly.
Table 2: Democratic Senate win probabilities and projected final margins, 2022
| State | Fundamentals | Polling (WAPA) | Poll Wt | Final Projection | |||
| Democratic seat | Margin | P(D win) | Margin | P(D win) | Margin | P(D win) | |
| Hawaii | 35.0 | 100.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 100.0% |
| Vermont | 29.3 | 100.0% | 22.3 | 100.0% | 0.84 | 23.4 | 100.0% |
| Maryland | 32.2 | 100.0% | 23.0 | 100.0% | 0.70 | 25.8 | 100.0% |
| California | 27.2 | 100.0% | 22.0 | 100.0% | 0.98 | 22.1 | 100.0% |
| New York | 26.2 | 100.0% | 20.6 | 100.0% | 0.91 | 21.1 | 100.0% |
| Connecticut | 19.9 | 99.6% | 12.6 | 100.0% | 0.83 | 13.9 | 99.9% |
| Washington | 19.7 | 99.6% | 9.0 | 100.0% | 0.89 | 10.2 | 100.0% |
| Illinois | 19.3 | 99.5% | 15.7 | 100.0% | 0.86 | 16.2 | 99.9% |
| Oregon | 16.1 | 98.4% | 19.2 | 100.0% | 0.93 | 19.0 | 99.9% |
| Colorado | 11.7 | 93.7% | 7.4 | 98.5% | 0.86 | 8.0 | 97.8% |
| New Hampshire | 7.1 | 78.3% | 7.1 | 100.0% | 0.85 | 7.1 | 96.8% |
| Nevada | 5.4 | 73.4% | -0.5 | 45.3% | 0.83 | 0.5 | 50.2% |
| Arizona | -3.9 | 40.5% | 6.8 | 100.0% | 0.84 | 5.1 | 90.3% |
| Georgia | -4.3 | 39.1% | 2.4 | 76.8% | 0.86 | 1.4 | 71.5% |
| Estimated Democratic seats lost = 0.9 (range = 0.3 to 1.6)* | |||||||
| Republican seat | |||||||
| Pennsylvania | -1.9 | 47.8% | 6.7 | 100.0% | 0.86 | 5.4 | 92.4% |
| Wisconsin | -5.3 | 35.4% | -2.1 | 22.3% | 0.90 | -2.4 | 23.5% |
| Florida | -8.4 | 25.4% | -5.2 | 0.6% | 0.80 | -5.8 | 5.6% |
| North Carolina | -5.4 | 35.2% | -1.1 | 39.6% | 0.86 | -1.7 | 39.0% |
| Ohio | -9.4 | 22.6% | 0.7 | 57.0% | 0.83 | -1.0 | 51.3% |
| Iowa | -12.7 | 14.4% | -8.8 | 0.0% | 0.90 | -9.2 | 1.5% |
| Alaska | -18.7 | 5.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0% |
| South Carolina | -18.8 | 5.1% | -18.5 | 0.0% | 0.72 | -18.6 | 1.5% |
| Missouri | -18.6 | 5.4% | -12.0 | 0.1% | 0.90 | -12.6 | 0.6% |
| Indiana | -22.5 | 2.4% | -2.3 | 42.4% | 0.76 | -7.2 | 32.6% |
| Kansas | -24.2 | 1.6% | -14.9 | 0.0% | 0.73 | -17.4 | 0.4% |
| Louisiana | -25.2 | 1.3% | -23.2 | 0.0% | 0.84 | -23.5 | 0.2% |
| Utah | -30.5 | 0.3% | -7.9 | 3.0% | 0.79 | -12.7 | 2.4% |
| Alabama | -28.8 | 0.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.5% |
| South Dakota | -32.5 | 0.2% | -20.0 | 0.0% | 0.81 | -22.4 | 0.0% |
| Kentucky | -33.2 | 0.1% | -15.5 | 0.0% | 0.39 | -26.2 | 0.1% |
| Arkansas | -33.2 | 0.1% | -12.8 | 22.5% | 0.73 | -18.3 | 16.5% |
| Idaho | -37.7 | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0% |
| North Dakota | -38.3 | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma (1) | -40.7 | 0.0% | -20.0 | 0.0% | 0.75 | -25.1 | 0.0% |
| Oklahoma (2) | -40.7 | 0.0% | -14.2 | 0.0% | 0.75 | -20.7 | 0.0% |
| Estimated Republican seats lost = 2.7 (range = 1.8 to 4.9) | |||||||
| Overall expected Democratic seats gained/lost = +1.7 (range = +0.2 to +4.6) |
*Adding 4 or subtracting 3 points to all WAPA, including generic ballot estimates
Italics indicate open seats, while boldface indicates a likely “flip.” “Fundamentals” is the sum of state’s partisan lean (3W-RDM), current generic ballot estimate (D+0.3) and incumbency advantage (Senate values: 5.5 points for Democrats, 3.3 points for Republicans); I assign one-third incumbency advantage to Democrats Mark Kelly of Arizona and Raphael Warnock of Georgia because they first won their seats in 2020 special elections. Essentially, this is what one would expect the Democratic margin to be for a generic Democratic vs. a generic Republican. The “fundamentals” probability the Democratic candidate wins is the likelihood of a Democratic margin of ≥0.0000001 given a normal distribution, with mean of +1.3 (mean historic “miss”) and standard deviation of 10.7.
Despite improvement on the generic ballot, “on paper,” Kelly and Warnock are modest underdogs, while Democratic incumbents in New Hampshire and Nevada are only modest favorites. On the flip side, the open Republican seat in Pennsylvania – vacated after two terms by Pat Toomey – is essentially a toss-up, albeit with the Republican candidate barely favored. Two other Republican-held seats – in North Carolina and Wisconsin – only tilt Republican. On average, I now give 18% weight to fundamentals and 82% weight to WAPA, unchanged from last week – despite methodological changes.
Recall these “projection categories”:
Safe Republican (<5%)
Solid Republican (≥5 to <10%)
Likely Republican (≥10 to <20%)
Lean Republican (≥20 to <33%)
Tilt Republican (≥33 to <45%)
Toss-up (≥45 to ≤55%)
Tilt Democratic (>55 to ≤67%)
Lean Democratic (>67 to ≤80%)
Likely Democratic (>80 to ≤90%)
Solid Democratic (>90 to ≤95%)
Safe Democratic (>95%)
The difference between “Safe” and “Solid” is not especially illuminating for Republicans, so let us combine them:
Safe/Solid Republican (n=14). Incumbents Crapo, Hoeven, John Kennedy (LA), Jim Lankford (OK), Jerry Moran (KS), Rand Paul (KY), Tim Scott (SC) and John Thune (SD) are near-locks to win. Republican nominees Britt, Markwayne Mullin and Eric Schmitt are also prohibitive favorites to win open seats in Alabama, Oklahoma and Missouri, respectively. Republican Senator Mike Lee is favored – for now – to defeat Independent former CIA operative Evan McMullin (effectively the Democratic nominee) in Utah, while I project Murkowski has the edge over Tshibaka. Finally, after opening a commanding lead the week before, a new Selzer & Company poll (A+) shows Grassley just three points ahead of retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken; still Grassley’s overall polling average of 49.6% makes him the heavy favorite.
Likely Republican (n=3). Two polls have been conducted in the Indiana Senate election between Republican incumbent Todd Young and Democratic Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott, Jr. These mediocre (B-/C+) polls, one skewed Democratic and one skewed Republican, suggest Young leads McDermott by only 2.3 points, when he “should” be winning by more than 20 points. Moreover, neither candidate tops 42% on average, which combined with Libertarian candidate James Sceniak (6% in the most recent poll) suggests extreme volatility – which is why McDermott has a roughly one-in-three chance to win. While this could be a sign of a Democratic surge – along with a single poll in Arkansas suggesting trouble for Republican incumbent John Boozman – it is far more likely just a handful of mediocre polls not pushing undecideds hard enough. Both Boozman and Young should win by double digits.
On paper, Florida’s Senate contest is Lean Republican, which Rubio leading overall by 5.2 points supports. However, Democratic House member Val Demings has gained substantial ground. In 10 polls conducted through July 1, Demings trailed by 8.8 points, 37.0% to 45.8%, with an unusually-high 17.2% choosing neither candidate. But on June 24, the United States Supreme Court overturned the right to an abortion, sending the issue back to state legislatures to decide – and galvanizing Democratic voters. In the 19 polls conducted since then, Demings trails by 4.7 points, 43.2% to 47.9%, a 4.1-point shift overall apparently fueled by “committing voters” breaking roughly 7-3 for Demings. Rubio is still heavily favored, but if Demings once again attracts deciding voters at this rate, this could be a very close election.
Lean Republican (n=1). Johnson is now favored to win reelection in Wisconsin, in line with fundamentals. He still leads Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes 48.8% to 46.8%, in 17 polls (B+), and 49.2% to 46.4% in 13 polls released since Labor Day (B+). There is a substantial caveat, however. Marquette University Law School (A/B) polled this election from October 3 to October 9. Among registered voters (n=801), Barnes and Johnson are tied at 47%, but among “likely” voters (n=652), Johnson leads 52% to 46%. Likely voter screens typically add 1-2 points to Republican margins, so six points is highly unusual. Using the registered voter values, Barnes’ win probability jumps from 23.5% to 29.0% overall, and from 17.2% to 24.8% using post-Labor-Day polls.
Tilt Republican (n=1). On paper, Republicans are modest favorites to retain the Senate seat being vacated by Richard Burr in North Carolina (R+5.8). Still, former State Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley is within 1.0 points of House member Ted Budd – though she trails by 1.8 points in eight polls conducted since Labor Day (B). That said, Budd only averages 45.6% in these polls, making this election extremely competitive.
Toss-ups (n=2). Republicans should also be modest favorites to retain the Senate seat being vacated by Rob Portman in Ohio (R+9.8). However, Democratic House member Tim Ryan leads Vance 45.2% to 44.5% overall, and 45.2% to 44.9% points in 11 polls conducted since Labor Day (B+/B). The only reason this election is not “Tilt Democrat” is a projected loss of 1.0 points using all polls, and a projected loss of 0.8 points using post-Labor-Day polls.
In Nevada, Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto trails Republican former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt overall (21 polls, B-/B), 44.1% to 44.7%. After leading by 2.8 points in 14 polls conducted through Labor Day, Cortez Masto trails in seven polls (B) conducted since then, 43.7% to 45.6%. Cortez Masto’s inability to top 45% at any point should seriously worry Democrats, along with my projection she will lose by 0.7 points based only on post-Labor-Day polls. That said, research by David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report suggest Democrats overperformed polls in the Senate races of 2016 and 2018, meaning a Laxalt victory is far from assured.
Tilt Democratic (n=0).
Lean Democratic (n=1). Five multi-day polls (B+) have been conducted since October 3, 2022, the day the Daily Beast reported the ardently pro-life Walker had reimbursed his then-girlfriend for an abortion in 2009; that same day, Walker’s son Christian tweeted about his father’s history of abusive and violent behavior. In these polls, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock leads Walker 48.2% to 45.4%, with an average 3.3 points for other candidates. In the eight polls (B/B+) conducted just prior to the revelations, Warnock led 46.9% to 45.6%, suggesting Warnock gained 1.3 points while Walker basically held steady. Overall (n=42, B), Warnock leads 47.3% to 45.0%, and is ahead 47.5% to 44.6% in 16 polls (B+) conducted since Labor Day. As I keep cautioning, however, Georgia is still a Republican-leaning state (R+6.5), so a runoff occasioned by neither candidate winning a majority on Election Day remains a possibility. If the race goes to a December runoff, FiveThirtyEight.com projects Walker to win an average 66% of the time, up 3 points from last week.
Likely Democratic (n=1). The Senate seat most likely to change partisan hands is that held by retiring Republican Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania. Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman leads Republican television celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz overall 48.3% to 41.6% (n=29, B). However, Fetterman’s stroke and some consolidation of Republican voters by Oz are likely why the race has plateaued at a lower margin: in 12 polls (B+) conducted since Labor Day, Fetterman leads 47.7% to 42.8%, a 0.6-point drop for Fetterman and a 1.2-point increase for Oz; using only post-Labor-Day polling, Fetterman still has a win probability of 87.6%.
Solid Democratic (n=1). Kelly has edged even closer this week to winning the Arizona (R+6.1) Senate race. He now tallies 48.8% to 42.0 for Masters overall (n=27, B/B-), and 48.5% to 42.2% in 17 post-Labor Day polls (B). I expect Kelly to win by about five points.
Safe Democratic (n=12): Incumbents Michael Bennet (CO), Richard Blumenthal (CT), Tammy Duckworth (IL), Maggie Hassan (NH), Patty Murray (WA), Alex Padilla (CA), Chuck Schumer (NY), Schatz, Chris Van Hollen (MD) and Ron Wyden (OR) are near-locks to win reelection. Murray was effectively reelected on August 2, when she won 52.3% of the vote in an all-candidate primary; all Democrats combined won just under 55% of the vote. Meanwhile, House member Peter Welch is all-but-certain to win the Vermont Senate seat being vacated by seven-term Democrat Pat Leahy.
Bottom line: There is an 83.7% chance Democrats hold at least 50 Senate seats – and thus maintain the majority. There is also a 66.9% chance Democrats net add Senate seats, with two being the most likely outcome (20.0%); the next most likely possibility is a continuing 50-50 split (16.8%). There remains a non-trivial (11.2%) chance Democrats net lose one seat, giving Republicans a narrow 51-49 majority. Overall, there is a 74.1% chance Democrats land between a net loss of one and a net gain of three Senate seats, for an over/under of +1.5.
Figure 1: 2022 Senate election distribution
***********
Governors. As of October 16, 2022, 365 publicly-available gubernatorial election polls have been conducted since November 1, 2021. Only those in the open seat in Hawaii – which Democrat Josh Green is a near-lock to win – and in Alabama, Idaho, Tennessee, and Wyoming – which Republicans Kay Ivey, Brad Little, Bill Lee and Mark Gordon, respectively, are near-locks to win – do not yet have publicly-available polling. A net gain of three governor’s mansions by Democrats would give them 25, giving them parity for the first time since 2010. Table 3 shows updated values for all 36 gubernatorial elections in 2022.
Table 3: Democratic gubernatorial win probabilities and projected final margins, 2022
| State | Fundamentals | Polling (WAPA) | Poll Wt | Final Projection | |||
| Democratic seat | Margin | P(D win) | Margin | P(D win) | Margin | P(D win) | |
| Hawaii | 29.4 | 94.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 94.1% |
| California | 35.7 | 97.1% | 23.5 | 100.0% | 0.87 | 25.0 | 99.6% |
| New York | 20.6 | 86.3% | 11.0 | 100.0% | 0.85 | 12.4 | 98.0% |
| Rhode Island | 22.2 | 88.1% | 13.3 | 91.6% | 0.85 | 14.6 | 91.1% |
| Connecticut | 24.7 | 90.5% | 11.7 | 100.0% | 0.86 | 13.6 | 98.6% |
| Illinois | 24.1 | 90.0% | 13.0 | 100.0% | 0.81 | 15.1 | 98.1% |
| Oregon | 10.5 | 71.1% | -1.1 | 45.0% | 0.81 | 1.2 | 50.1% |
| New Mexico | 17.1 | 81.8% | 7.4 | 97.5% | 0.94 | 8.0 | 96.6% |
| Colorado | 16.5 | 80.9% | 14.2 | 100.0% | 0.87 | 14.5 | 97.4% |
| Maine | 15.3 | 79.1% | 10.0 | 100.0% | 0.77 | 11.2 | 95.3% |
| Minnesota | 12.6 | 74.8% | 6.4 | 99.4% | 0.92 | 6.9 | 97.4% |
| Nevada | 10.3 | 70.7% | -0.5 | 45.6% | 0.83 | 1.4 | 50.0% |
| Michigan | 10.1 | 70.4% | 10.3 | 100.0% | 0.82 | 10.3 | 94.8% |
| Pennsylvania | -1.9 | 45.8% | 9.7 | 100.0% | 0.87 | 8.3 | 93.2% |
| Wisconsin | 8.4 | 67.2% | 0.6 | 55.3% | 0.90 | 1.3 | 56.4% |
| Kansas | -10.5 | 28.6% | 3.2 | 65.7% | 0.78 | 0.1 | 57.4% |
| Estimated Democratic seats lost = 2.3 (range = 1.3 to 3.3)* | |||||||
| Republican seat | |||||||
| Vermont | 15.4 | 79.3% | -35.7 | 0.0% | 0.84 | -27.6 | 12.6% |
| Maryland | 26.6 | 92.2% | 27.7 | 100.0% | 0.87 | 27.5 | 98.9% |
| Massachusetts | 26.5 | 92.1% | 23.3 | 100.0% | 0.86 | 23.8 | 98.9% |
| New Hampshire | -12.3 | 25.4% | -17.3 | 0.0% | 0.85 | -16.5 | 3.8% |
| Florida | -19.0 | 15.4% | -6.5 | 0.0% | 0.80 | -9.0 | 3.1% |
| Arizona | -5.7 | 37.9% | 0.0 | 50.1% | 0.86 | -0.8 | 48.4% |
| Georgia | -12.9 | 24.3% | -5.8 | 0.0% | 0.87 | -6.7 | 3.1% |
| Iowa | -23.3 | 10.6% | -17.4 | 0.0% | 0.93 | -17.8 | 0.7% |
| Ohio | -23.3 | 10.6% | -15.8 | 0.0% | 0.89 | -16.7 | 1.2% |
| Texas | -25.5 | 8.6% | -7.2 | 0.0% | 0.85 | -10.0 | 1.3% |
| Alaska | -29.3 | 5.8% | -8.6 | 0.0% | 0.78 | -13.2 | 1.3% |
| South Carolina | -29.4 | 5.8% | -7.3 | 0.0% | 0.73 | -13.2 | 1.6% |
| Nebraska | -24.7 | 9.3% | -5.2 | 30.7% | 0.76 | -9.9 | 25.5% |
| Tennessee | -40.7 | 1.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1.5% |
| Alabama | -42.7 | 1.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1.1% |
| South Dakota | -43.1 | 1.1% | -4.0 | 45.1% | 0.74 | -14.2 | 33.5% |
| Arkansas | -29.9 | 5.5% | -22.0 | 0.0% | 0.77 | -23.8 | 1.2% |
| Idaho | -48.3 | 0.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.5% |
| Oklahoma | -51.3 | 0.3% | -7.0 | 5.8% | 0.77 | -17.4 | 4.5% |
| Wyoming | -61.0 | 0.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 0.1% |
| Estimated Republican seats lost = 2.9 (range = 2.7 to 4.2) | |||||||
| Overall expected Democratic seats gained/lost = +1.1 (range = -0.3 to +2.9) |
*Adding 4 or subtracting 3 points to all WAPA, including generic ballot estimates
The gubernatorial incumbency advantages are 10.4 points for Democrats and 13.9 points for Democrats. On average, I now give 16% weight to fundamentals and 84% weight to WAPA, a decrease of 3.0 points in polling weight resulting from methodological changes.
Safe/Solid Republican (n=16). Incumbents Mike DeWine (OH), Mike Dunleavy (AK), Gordon, Ivey, Lee, Little, Henry McMaster (SC), Kristi Noem (SD), Kim Reynolds (IA) and Chris Sununu (NH) are near-locks for reelection. University of Nebraska Board of Regents member Jim Pillen and former White House spokesperson Sarah Huckabee Sanders will be the next Republican governors of Nebraska and Arkansas, respectively.
Meanwhile, Democrats Stacey Abrams (GA), Charlie Crist (FL) and Beto O’Rourke (TX) trail incumbent Republican governors Brian Kemp, DeSantis and Greg Abbott, respectively, by an average 6.5 points. Moreover, since Labor Day, all three incumbents average between 49.9% and 50.7%, effectively ending these elections.
Likely Republican (n=1). Popular Republican governor Phil Scott will win reelection, despite Vermont’s D+28.9 status.
Meanwhile, four mediocre post-Labor-Day-polls (C+/B-) give Stitt “only” a 3.6-point lead over Oklahoma (R+37.8) Democratic state Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, 44.9% to 41.3%, with fully 13.8% not choosing either. Exclude a Republican-leaning American Viewpoint poll which had many more undecideds at the expense of Hofmeister, and the lead vanishes: 44.1% to 43.8%. Stitt should still win by nearly 20 points – something similar played out in the polls in 2018, when he won by 12.1 points. Except – single polls out of Nebraska and South Dakota also show much closer than expected elections. The safe bet is for Republicans easily to win all three elections, but more data is clearly warranted.
Lean Republican (n=0).
Tilt Republican (n=0).
Toss-ups (n=5). Three governors who first won in the 2018 Democratic wave find themselves in a pitched battle for reelection: Laura Kelly in Kansas, Steve Sisolak in Nevada and Tony Evers in Wisconsin. The good news for Kelly in heavily Republican Kansas (R+21.3) is that in two polls conducted at least in part after Labor Day, she leads Schmidt 46.9% to 42.6%, putting her much closer to victory; overall, in four polls, she leads 46.6% to 43.4%. I project her to eke out a narrow victory, one closer to three points than 0.6 points.
In Nevada, meanwhile, Sisolak now trails Clark County Sheriff Joe 43.7% to 44.2% overall (n=21, B-/B), and 43.0% to 45.1% in six polls (B) conducted since Labor Day. And while I project him to win by just over one point (and note a similarly pro-Democratic polling miss for governor in 2018), his inability to crack 44% should make Democrats very nervous.
The story is similar in Wisconsin, where Evers’ lead over businessman Tim Michels has dropped to 47.4% to 46.8% overall (n=16, B+), and to just 47.2% to 47.0% since Labor Day (n=11, B+/A-). I still expect Evers to win by just over one point, but a narrow loss is also quite possible.
The open governor’s race in strongly-Democratic Oregon (D+10.3) is a pure toss-up right now because of Independent Betsy Johnson, a former Democratic state senator, and a dearth of quality polling. Only nine polls (B-/B) have been conducted overall, and they now show Republican former State House Majority Leader Christine Drazan edging Democratic former State House Speaker Tina Kotek 34.5% to 33.3%, with Johnson at 19.1%. Drazan has widened her lead to 2.2 points in five polls conducted since Labor Day (B-), with Johnson dropping to 17.9%. I had assumed Johnson supporters would begin to shift to Kotek, but a majority seem to be moving to Drazan. Unless Kotek reverses that trend (and assuming this is not just an artifact of mediocre polling), her projected 1.2-point victory is very much in doubt.
The open governor’s race in Arizona – the first of three states in which a Democrat is at least even money to replace a retiring Republican governor – remains a toss-up, though it now tilts ever so slightly Republican. Democratic state Attorney General Katie Hobbs is only a 48.4% favorite to defeat Republican television personality Kari Lake in this R+6.1 state, and only 44.7% in post-Labor-Day polling; to be fair, much of this shift is due to methodological changes. Still, Lake continues to bump against a ceiling of 46.7% in those 13 post-Labor-Day polls (n=13, B/B+), vs. 46.2% for Hobbs. Overall (n=22, B), the race is a pure tie: 46.2% to 46.2%.
Tilt Democratic (n=0).
Lean Democratic (n=0).
Likely Democratic (n=0).
Solid/Safe Democratic (n=14). The other states which Democrats are near-locks to flip are Maryland and Massachusetts, with both former Army Captain Wes Moore and state Attorney General Maura Healey projected to win by around 25 points. Two other Democratic statewide officials are heavy favorites to win governor’s mansions held by retiring Democrats: Lieutenant Governor Green in Hawaii and Attorney General Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania.
That leaves nine incumbent Democrats who are at least 9-1 favorites to win reelection: Hochul, Ned Lamont (CT), Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM), Dan McKee (RI), Janet Mills (ME), Gavin Newsom (CA), Jared Polis (CO), J.B. Pritzker (IL), Tim Walz (MN) and Gretchen Whitmer (MI).
Bottom line: Democrats remain modest favorites to net at least one governor’s mansion (57.8%), most likely (37.9%) between one and three. However, there is also a 29.1% chance Democrats net lose governor’s mansions, with a loss of two being the likeliest outcome overall (18.5%). There is a 75.2% chance Democrats land somewhere between a net loss of two and a net gain of three governor’s mansions, for an over/under of +0.5.
Figure 2: 2022 gubernatorial election distribution
***********
While Democrats find themselves in a decent position – at least modest favorites to net Senate seats and governor’s mansions, while limiting losses in the House to single digits – it would only take a polling miss of 3 points in Republicans’ favor (relative to WAPA) to flip the script. In this scenario, Democrats still gain the Senate seat in Pennsylvania (88.9%), while losing in Nevada (28.7%); Senate control would hinge on Georgia (40.3%). Democrats would still win back governor’s mansions in Maryland and Massachusetts, while likely losing in Nevada (29.8%), Kansas (44.9%), Oregon (38.5%) and Wisconsin (32.2%). And the likelihood of retaining House control would drop to 7.8%, centered around a loss of 19 seats.
However, it is equally plausible Democrats overperform polls by a similar amount – an increase of 4 points relative to my WAPA. In this scenario, Democrats would be favored (73.6%) to retain House control, net gaining about three seats. Not only would Democrats flip Pennsylvania while holding all their Senate seats (with Nevada closest at 79.3%), they would also add North Carolina (71.9%), Ohio (80.3%) and Wisconsin (73.9%) for a gain of four seats – with Florida (30.4%) and Indiana (43.3%) now in play. They would still top out at netting three governor’s mansions, albeit with Nebraska (37.7%) and South Dakota (37.4%) possibly in play; Oklahoma would still only be 19.4% (using all polls).
As of mid-October, though, I still prefer to drive straight down the middle, while awaiting new polling, especially in some midwestern gubernatorial and Senate elections, and following a series of lively debates.
If you have read to this point, a) thank you very much and b) you are clearly a close student of American politics, meaning there are two folks I urge you to follow on Twitter. One is Wasserman (@redistrict), and the other is University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald (@ElectProject). According to data compiled by the latter, nearly 2 million votes have already been cast across 20 reporting states; this excludes the all-mail-ballot states of Colorado, Oregon and Washington. It is too soon to read anything into registration breakdowns other than they are consistent with Democrats “banking” a substantial number of early votes. Speaking of which, early voting starts here in Massachusetts on October 22.
Until next time, if you are not already registered to vote, I urge you to do so immediately. And if you like what you read on this website, please consider making a donation. Thank you.
Just Bear With Me... 
One thought on “2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns”