How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?

On March 31, 2021, nearly five months after Election Day 2020, Democrat Rita Hart finally conceded to Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District (“CD”), dropping her challenge to her six-vote loss. This was a net win for the Republicans, as United States House of Representatives (“House”) Member Dave Loebsack, a Democrat, had not … Continue reading How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?

The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections

On November 3, 2020, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected president and vice president, respectively, of the United States. According to data from Dave Leip’s essential Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, the Biden-Harris ticket won 51.3% of the nearly 158.6 million votes cast. Turnout shattered the previous record of 137.1 million votes cast … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections

2020 Elections Post-Mortem

On November 3, 2020, the United States ended a weeks-long electoral process. At stake was the presidency, control of the United States Senate (“Senate”) and House of Representatives (“House”), 11 governor’s mansions, and thousands of state and local offices. That day, I published “cheat sheets” to guide election viewers through state-level presidential returns, 35 Senate … Continue reading 2020 Elections Post-Mortem

Dispatches from Brookline: Home Schooling and Social Distancing VI

I have described elsewhere how my wife Nell, our two daughters—one in 4th grade and one in 6th grade—and I were already coping with social distancing and the closure of the public schools in Brookline, Massachusetts until at least April 7, 2020. Besides staying inside as much as possible, we converted our dining room into … Continue reading Dispatches from Brookline: Home Schooling and Social Distancing VI

Organizing by themes I: American politics

This site benefits/suffers/both from consisting of posts about a wide range of topics, all linked under the amorphous heading "data-driven storytelling." In an attempt to impose some coherent structure, I am organizing related posts both chronologically and thematically. Given that I have multiple degrees in political science, with an emphasis on American politics, it is … Continue reading Organizing by themes I: American politics

2018 Election Cheat Sheet: How did I do?

I should apologize to our younger daughter’s friend’s mother. In my…determination…to be settled in front of the television with snacks and beverages at precisely 6 pm EST on November 6, 2018, I might have been a bit abrupt collecting our youngest daughter from a local taqueria where said friend’s mother had generously taken them to … Continue reading 2018 Election Cheat Sheet: How did I do?

A plea to readers with two weeks until Election Day 2018 ends…

The 2018 midterm elections end in two weeks, on November 6, 2018. I write “end” because early voting is underway in 28 states, including Massachusetts. In fact, it opened Monday, October 22, and so I dragged our two daughters to Brookline Town Hall so they could participate in the process. And, yes, I voted straight … Continue reading A plea to readers with two weeks until Election Day 2018 ends…

An update on projected 2018 Democratic U. S. House seat gains

UPDATED Midnight EST, November 20, 2018. As of this writing, Democrats have netted 38 seats in the United States House of Representatives, with three races still to be called. Democrat Ben McAdams narrowly leads incumbent Republican Mia Love in Utah's 4th Congressional District (CD), while Democrats trail narrowly in California's 21st and Georgia's 7th CD. … Continue reading An update on projected 2018 Democratic U. S. House seat gains

Projected 2018 Democratic U.S. House seat gains

This piece (only available to subscribers) appeared earlier today on Taegan Goddard’s absolutely essential Political Wire. A new Brennan Center report says “extreme gerrymandering” could cost Democrats control of the House unless they ride a massive blue wave. Because of maps designed to favor Republicans, Democrats would need to win by a nearly unprecedented nationwide margin in … Continue reading Projected 2018 Democratic U.S. House seat gains

Positively pondering pesky probabilities, perchance

One inspiration to start this “data-driven storytelling” blog was the pioneering work of Nate Silver and his fellow data journalists at FiveThirtyEight.com; their analyses are an essential “critical thinking” reality check to my own conclusions and perceptions. Indeed, when I finally get around to designing and teaching my course on critical thinking (along with my … Continue reading Positively pondering pesky probabilities, perchance