2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments?

On September 26, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 14 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments?

2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations

On September 19, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations

2022 Elections Update: Rethinking polling margins of error

On Labor Day 2022, I published my first set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate and 36 elections for governor. In the ensuing two weeks, an additional … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Rethinking polling margins of error

2022 Elections: The View from Labor Day

It has been more than a year since I first addressed the 2022 elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”) and Senate (“Senate”), as well as for governor. In June 2021, the political outlook was dire for Democrats, as I concluded it was extremely likely they would lose their majority in the House, … Continue reading 2022 Elections: The View from Labor Day

When Failure Is Success…And Vice Versa

It was likely in 2001 – though it may have been just after I moved into my new apartment in the Philadelphia suburb of King of Prussia in February 2003 – I received this handsome piece of engraved metal from my more off-than-on-again girlfriend. When I first read the question, I tried earnestly answer it … Continue reading When Failure Is Success…And Vice Versa