JUST BEAR WITH ME…

…maintains that each of us has powerful and interesting stories to tell.

WHAT IS Just Bear With Me…?

This is where I tell stories with data, often using tales from my own life to provide context. My story-telling style – call it “annotated meandering” – inspired this site’s name. Just bear with me…I do get to the point.

To learn about Dr. Matthew Berger – author of this site – please click here.

The cover photograph shows the Vale Rio Diner, which used to sit at the intersection of Routes 23 and 113 in Phoenixville, PA. It appears prominently here.

This is also where I promote my books, starting with Interrogating Memory: Film Noir Spurs a Deep Dive Into My Family History…and My Own.

I also promote other brilliant storytellers, because we need to support each other.

2026 ELECTION FORECASTS

Click here to learn how I forecast Senate and gubernatorial elections, and the probability of a Democratic House majority, as of January 2027. For updates, see The Blog below.

Color-coded tables display three polling scenarios – overestimate Democratic strength by four percentage points (“points”), accurate, underestimate Democratic strength by four points – for where the projected final margin is less than 7.5 points, excepting the Senate race in North Carolina.

Shading blue, purple and red is Solid Democratic (>90%), Likely Democratic (75 – 90%), Lean Democratic (66 – 75%), Tilt Democratic (60 – 66%), Toss-up (40 – 60%), Tilt Republican (34 – 40%), Lean Republican (25 – 33%), Likely Republican (10 – 25%) and Solid Republican (<10%).

States where Democrats or Democratic-aligned independents win in each scenario are light blue, states where both parties win in at least one scenario are purple, and states where Republicans win in each scenario are red. Incumbents in boldface. Color indicates which party currently holds seat. Font color shows Democratic or Republican flips.

Key 2026 Senate Elections as of October 12, 2026

Key 2026 Governor Elections as of October 12, 2026

As of October 12, 2026:

THE BLOG

Since my YouTube channel is my only social media outlet, when I have something brief to say, I will put it here. Older entries may be found here.

October 10, 2026: I now assign 0.5 weight to polls conducted by Wedgewood Polls. Since June 2026, they have released 17 Senate and gubernatorial election polls (GA, IA, KS, ME, NE, NV, OH, TX). With the exception of a September 14-16 poll showing Republican Nebraska Governor Jay Pillen with a 17-point lead over former Democratic State Senator Lynne Walz (the other 5 polls released in September give Pillen only a 2.7-point lead), their polls have been within the range established by other pollsters in each election. However, the Wedgewood Polls website – hosted on Google – is notably devoid of names, addresses and other identifying information. This opacity is often a red flag for cheap, sub-standard methodology.

October 4, 2026: Thirteen states have relatively competitive Senate and gubernatorial elections this year. In all but one state – Ohio, where both Democratic nominees average 48% in polling and lead by 3 to 4 points – one Republican nominee is polling noticeably higher. I call this the “Cornyn Republican effect,” after the Texas Senator who lost renomination to state Attorney General Ken Paxton in March. Thus, a substantial sliver of supporters of John Cornyn are happy to support Republican Governor Greg Abbott but will either sit out the Senate race or vote for Democrat James Talarico.

Current time-weighted polling averages give Republican Senatorial nominees the edge over their gubernatorial counterparts in Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan and Minnesota (mean = +5.3 points). The reverse is true in Georgia, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Texas (mean = +7.8 points). The gap in Ohio is a negligible 0.5 points. The largest gaps are in New Hampshire (18.2 points) and Maine (10.7 points), two New England states where independents comprise at least 1/3 of the electorate. Overall, the gap is 6.1 points, on average.

September 27, 2026: Two elections show signs of tightening in favor of Republicans. One is the gubernatorial election in Georgia, where three polls concducted since Labor Day give Republican businessman Rick Jackson an average 1.4-point lead over Democratic former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Strong Democratic fundamentals still make Bottoms a narrow favorite. The second is the Maine Senate election, where five points conducted since Labor Day give Democratic former State Senate President Troy Jackson an average 0.3-point lead over incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins. While Jackson still leads in the polling overall, Collins’ historic incumbency advantage will bring this election down to the wire.

September 26, 2026: I now assign 1/2 weight to polls of the Alaska Senate and gubernatorial elections which only report initial vote choice, not final preferences after reallocation of votes from the two trailing candidates. Three recent Republican-leaning polls (co/efficient, Rasmussen Reports, Trafalgar Group) show incumbent Republican Senator Sullivan defeating former Democratic House Member Mary Peltola by an average 44.9% to 43.5% in first-choice ballots, with 6.2% going to two other Republicans and 5.4% undecided. In the five previous polls, three from Alaska Survey Research, Peltola beats Sullivan 51.9% to 48.1% when all votes are reallocated. These two sets of polls are somewhat apples and oranges, but they imply Peltola would win 72.4% of the 11.6% undecided or selecting a different first choice. Even if Peltola wins 60% of these votes, she defeats Sullivan 50.5 to 49.5%. Making this change boosts Peltola’s win probability to 64.6%. Alaska is now the clear “tipping point” Senate election.

Meanwhile, recent polling of the Michigan gubernatorial election shows Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leading Republican House Member John James “only” by low single digits, so the race moves back into the key governor elections table for now.

September 25, 2026: New polls of the Louisiana Senate and Vermont gubernatorial elections put them back into the key race tables. For now, I remain skeptical Democrats will win either election.

September 23, 2026: A round of strong Democratic polling pushes the likelihood Democrats have a Senate majority in January 2027 up to 82.5% (Likely Democratic), with a median gain of 5 seats – 1 more than necessary. The “tipping point” state is currently one of two Tilt Democratic seats : Alaska, where former Peltola has a 61.2% chance to defeat Sullivan, and Maine (see September 17 entry).

The probability Democrats net gain governor’s mansions – with a median of 2, which would given them a majority for the first time since 2010 – is also up to 77.2%. The probability Democrats net lose governor’s mansions drops to 10.5%.

September 17, 2026: A spate of post-Labor-Day polls, many from Republican-leaning pollsters, has dropped the likelihood Democrats retake the Senate to 78.7% (Likely Democratic), with a median gain of 5 seats – 1 more than necessary. The current “tipping point” state – the state that gets Democrats to 51 seats when seats are ranked by Democratic win probability – is Maine. Jackson is a 61.9% favorite (Tilt Democratic) to unseat Collins, albeit by a narrow 0.6 points. Combined the tipping point probability with the overall forecast, I estimate Senate control Leans Democratic…though a systematic polling error of just 2 points Republican would net Democrats only 2 seats, two short of a majority.

In Minnesota, where Democratic Senator Tina Smith is retiring, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is now projected to beat sports journalist Michelle Tafoya by just 3.7 ponts, well below the historic expectation of 10.8 points. This means a 4-point polling error favoring Republicans puts this seat in jeopardy. In this scenario, Democrats could net lose 1 seat.

The likelihood Democrats net governor’s mansions is now 75.1%…with a 56.0% chance of an outright majority. The median gain remains two. Oregon Democratic governor Tina Kotek is struggling in her rematch with Republican State Senator Christine Drazan. Kotek is still projected to win by 2.3 points because of a historic expectation of a 25-point victory. A similar scenario played out in 2022, when Kotek won by 3.5 points.

WHAT ELSE WILL YOU FIND HERE?

The Noir of Who: Classic Film Noir’s Imprint on the Resurrected Doctor Who

Disease Testing Worksheet

WHAT DO I ASK FROM READERS?

Please continue to bear with me, while inviting others to do the same. I am grateful to everyone who clicks “Like” and comments in a respectful way. Let us disagree without being disagreeable.

And if you enjoy what you read here, please consider making a donation. Simply select a “quantity” of $1 payments equal to the amount you wish to donate. For example, to make a $5 donation to Just Bear With Me, you would select “5” under “Quantity.” I adopted this Rube Goldberg method because Stripe stopped processing payments to Just Bear With Me on October 23, 2024 for…reasons.

Thank you again to everyone who visits this website! I value every single view.

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