JUST BEAR WITH ME…

…maintains that each of us has powerful and interesting stories to tell.

I am Matt Berger, PhD, and this is where I tell stories with data, often using tales from my own life to provide context. My story-telling style – call it “annotated meandering” – inspired this site’s name. Just bear with me…I get to the point fairly quickly.

This is also where I promote my books, starting with Interrogating Memory: Film Noir Spurs a Deep Dive Into My Family History…and My Own.

I also promote other brilliant storytellers, because creators need to support each other.

The cover photograph shows the Vale Rio Diner, which used to sit at the intersection of Routes 23 and 113 in Phoenixville, PA. It appears prominently here.

2026 ELECTION FORECASTS

Here is the 2026 Election Cheat Sheet for the 35 Senate and 36 gubernatorial elections. See The Blog below for details – older entries may be found here.

Click here to learn how I forecast Senate and gubernatorial elections, and the probability of a Democratic House majority as of January 2027.

Color-coded tables display three scenarios – polls overestimate Democratic margins by four percentage points (“points”), margins are accurate, polls underestimate Democratic margins by four points – for elections with a projected final margin less than 7.5 points. The Georgia and North Carolina Senate races are Solid Democratic – with the latter a Democratic pick-up – so they are no longer in the table.

Shading blue, purple and red is Solid Democratic (probability of Democratic win >90%), Likely Democratic (75 – 90%), Leans Democratic (66 – 75%), Tilt Democratic (60 – 66%), Toss-up (40 – 60%), Tilt Republican (34 – 40%), Leans Republican (25 – 33%), Likely Republican (10 – 25%) and Solid Republican (<10%).

States where Democrats or Democratic-aligned independents win in each scenario are light blue, states where both parties win in at least one scenario are purple, and states where Republicans win in each scenario are red. Incumbents in boldface. Color indicates which party currently holds seat. Font color shows Democratic or Republican flips.

FINAL Key 2026 Senate Elections

FINAL Key 2026 Governor Elections

FINAL PROJECTED DISTRIBUTIONS

THE BLOG

Since my YouTube channel is my only social media outlet, when I have something brief to say, I will put it here. Older entries may be found here.

November 3, 2026: Election Day 2026 has arrived!

The biannual “cheat sheet” is now available as a PDF. Sorted by the time all polls close in a state, it presents the candidates (party holding seat in italics, with incumbents underlined) plus a rough projection of the final Democratic margin. A reasonable rule of thumb is to allow for three points in either direction. Races projected to change partisan hands are colored in blue for Democratic gains – with one likely Repblican gain (Kansas governor), albeit this election is now a toss-up.

If every flip is correct, Democrats will keep every seat they currently have while adding seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas – with Louisiana, Nebraska and South Carolina winnable if polls underestimate Democratic strength by about one percentage point. On the flip side, Democrats would still net the four seats needed to regain a Senate majority even if the polls are overestimating Democratic strength by 2.5 points. Put another way, even if 2/3 of all undecided voters choose the Republican ballot, Democrats would still regain a Senate majority, with a seat to spare.

Democrats also seem poised to lose the governor’s mansion in Kansas, while adding those in Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, with the ones in Georgia and Nevada balanced on a knife’s edge. This net gain of 2-4 seats would make a majority of governors Democrats for the first time since 2010.

As for the House, Democratic strength on the generic ballot has been increasing steadily since November 2025, regardless of the partisan affiliation of the pollster. The final time-weighted polling average (“TWPA”) is Democrats plus 7.5, but I am being cautious and assuming 2/3 of undecided voters choose the Republican candidate. This would give Democrats a 5.2-point lead nationally – a 7.9-point improvement from both 2022 and 2024 – and an estimated gain of 15-33 seats, centered on 24. Democrats are thus projected to have between 230 and 248 House seats, well over the minimum 218 needed for a majority.

If you have not already done so, please vote. And then sit and enjoy the returns as they trickle in. I will be following Steve Kornacki, who produced this glorious piece of art earlier this year.

WHAT ELSE WILL YOU FIND HERE?

The Noir of Who: Classic Film Noir’s Imprint on the Resurrected Doctor Who

Disease Testing Worksheet

WHAT DO I ASK FROM READERS?

Please continue to bear with me, while inviting others to do the same. I am grateful to everyone who clicks “Like” and comments in a respectful way. Let us disagree without being disagreeable.

And if you enjoy what you read here, please consider making a donation. Simply select a “quantity” of $1 payments equal to the amount you wish to donate. For example, to make a $5 donation to Just Bear With Me, you would select “5” under “Quantity.” I adopted this Rube Goldberg method because Stripe stopped processing payments to Just Bear With Me on October 23, 2024 for…reasons.

Thank you again to everyone who visits this website! I value every single view.

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