In the Key 2026 Senate and Governor Elections tables displayed on my homepage, I present three scenarios for projected final Democratic margin: 1) polling averages systematically over-assess Democratic margins by four percentage points (“points”), 2) no systematic error in polling averages and 3) polling averages systematically under-assess Democratic margins by four points. Using colors to … Continue reading Forecasting the 2026 Elections: Three Partisan Scenarios
Essays
A 2026 Election Forecasting Primer
With Labor Day in the rearview mirror, we address the elections for United States House of Representatives (“House”), United States Senate (“Senate”) and governor that conclude on November 3, 2026. House. All 435 House seats will be contested. Republicans held a 220-215 edge following the 2024 elections. Democrats need a net gain of three seats … Continue reading A 2026 Election Forecasting Primer
A radical updating of my priors on Se7en
[SPOILER WARNING FOR THE 1995 FILM SE7EN!!] Thirty years ago, during the first half of 1996, I was a 29-year-old living with his girlfriend in a third-floor corner apartment in Somerville, a short walk from both Davis and Porter Squares. I was either still miserably toiling as an Assistant Registrar at Brandeis University, or I … Continue reading A radical updating of my priors on Se7en
More early than late: The 2024 Dadaist Epic Post-Thanksgiving Poem
I did not publish a Dadaist epic poem shortly after Thanksgiving 2024 as I had in 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. Perhaps it was too soon after the 2024 elections, when I was not feeling especially celebratory. Or perhaps it was that more pressing matters demanded my attention. Whatever the reason, the inspiration to craft … Continue reading More early than late: The 2024 Dadaist Epic Post-Thanksgiving Poem
Assessing polling accuracy in 2024
The primary inspiration for this website was FiveThirtyEight.com. When I started to collect and analyze election polling data in earnest early in 2018, I followed its lead by developing my own polling aggregation: WAPA (weighted-adjusted polling average). I adjusted/weighted polls for recency, pollster quality, partisan lean, whether only adults were queried and whether percentages summed … Continue reading Assessing polling accuracy in 2024
A Wicked Early Look at the 2025 and 2026 Gubernatorial Elections
It is time to take a wicked early look at the 36 American gubernatorial elections scheduled to end on November 3, 2026, plus the two scheduled to end on November 4, 2025. Republicans currently have the edge in governors, 27- 23. If Democrats net win three of these 38 gubernatorial elections, they will hold a … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2025 and 2026 Gubernatorial Elections
A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections
It is time to take a wicked early look at the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) scheduled to end on November 3, 2026. Republicans are defending a 53-45-2 majority, although two Independents – Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont – vote with Democrats to organize the Senate. If Democrats … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections
The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition
On November 5, 2024, Republican Donald Trump was reelected president of the United States, with J.D. Vance elected to the vice presidency. Trump is only the second president – after Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892 – to lose reelection then win again four years later. Trump also became the first Republican presidential nominee to win … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition
This Tramp will always be Super to me
Back in the 80s, a great friend of mine and I were hanging out and chatting in the front room of his parents’ house in Havertown, PA.[1] At one point, he walked over to the piano and said something like, “You know popular music. What song is this?” He then played two A major chords, … Continue reading This Tramp will always be Super to me
Queer confessions
One night in April 1984, I drove three friends across the Delaware River into Trenton, NJ. There, we ate a meal at Pat’s Diner. I tell a version of this pivotal story in Chapter 10 of my INTERROGATING MEMORY book. I plan to write a longer version soon. To prepare to write this story, I … Continue reading Queer confessions
