The 2021 elections end later today, November 2. For background on the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia – including how I calculate polling averages - please see here and here. I made two minor adjustments since then: all polls with a field midpoint of October 1 or later are given a weight of … Continue reading The 2021 Virginia governor’s race will be a nail-biter
Category: Voting behavior
How does it look for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia with just two weeks to go?
The 2021 elections end on November 2. New Jersey and Virginia are electing governors, while Boston and New York City will elect new mayors. Michelle Wu appears to be well-ahead of Annissa Essaibi George in a race between two Boston Democrats, while Democrat Eric Adams is a near-lock to be elected New York City’s second … Continue reading How does it look for Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia with just two weeks to go?
A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022
In two recent posts, I… Determined it was fairly likely Republicans will regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022Examined the “fundamentals” underlying Democrats’ prospects in the 38 gubernatorial elections in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and 2022, landing tentatively on between a net loss of one and a net gain of … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022
A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022
In a recent post, I assessed it was fairly likely Republicans regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022. In this post, I turn my attention to the two gubernatorial elections to be held in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022. My goal … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022
How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?
[Eds. note: As of September 5, 2022, you may find updated House Democratic majority probabilities on the home page. Probabilities are calculated two ways: 1) using all generic ballot polls since January 1, 2021, 2) and using polls conducted since Labor Day 2022.] On March 31, 2021, nearly five months after Election Day 2020, Democrat … Continue reading How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?
Walter Mondale, Perry Mason and George Floyd
This is how I conclude the opening section of Chapter 1 of Interrogating Memory: Film Noir Spurs a Deep Dive Into My Family History…and My Own (publication TBD): I also learned that by 1920, Pennsylvania was the 2nd most common American state for the last name “Berger” (14%), behind only New York (23%),[i] which meant … Continue reading Walter Mondale, Perry Mason and George Floyd
The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
On November 3, 2020, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected president and vice president, respectively, of the United States. According to data from Dave Leip’s essential Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, the Biden-Harris ticket won 51.3% of the nearly 158.6 million votes cast. Turnout shattered the previous record of 137.1 million votes cast … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats
On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. One month ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats
The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real
As I detail here, the Electoral College (“EC”), not direct popular vote, determines who wins American presidential elections. Since 1856, the first presidential election in which the two major candidates were a Democrat (James Buchanan) and Republican (John C. Fremont), there were four presidential elections in which one candidate won the EC while another candidate … Continue reading The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real
Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out
On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. Three months ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out
Just Bear With Me... 