2020 Super Tuesday contests: My final polling update

[Ed. note: A few hours after I published this, a complete set of Super Tuesday polls was released by Swayable (C+) and Data for Progress (B-/C+), as well as a Spry Strategies poll (C-/D+) of North Carolina. I did not update each state’s final WAPA, though I did update the projected distribution of pledged delegates.]

On March 3, 2020, for the first time during the 2020 Democratic presidential nominating process, multiple states—as well as American Samoa and Democrats Abroad—will hold contests on the same day; there is a reason this day is called “Super Tuesday.” Before examining those contests, you may review results from the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire Primary, Nevada Caucuses and South Carolina Primary.

Table 1 lists the 16 jurisdictions holding primaries on Super Tuesday, along with poll closing times and the number of pledged delegates each state will provide to the Democratic National Convention, which will be held July 13-16, 2020 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Table 1: Democratic presidential nominating contests, March 3, 2020 by Poll Closing Times

Jurisidiction Poll Closing (EST) Pledged Delegates
Vermont 7 pm 16
Virginia 7 pm 99
North Carolina 7:30 pm 110
Alabama 8 pm 52
Maine 8 pm 24
Massachusetts 8 pm 91
Oklahoma 8 pm 37
Tennessee 8 pm 64
Texas 8 pm 228
Arkansas 8:30 pm 31
Colorado 9 pm 67
Minnesota 9 pm 75
Utah 9 pm 29
California 11 pm 415
American Samoa n/a 6
Democrats Abroad March 10 13
TOTAL PLEDGED DELEGATES 1,357

This Tuesday will be the closest the United States has ever come to a national presidential primary, with three contests in New England, five in the south, three in the center of the nation and three in the west; fully 34.1% of the 3,979 total pledged delegates will be awarded.[1] Just five states—California, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia and Massachusetts—will provide 943 (69.5%) of pledged delegates awarded on Super Tuesday. And as with the four previous Democratic presidential nominating contests, a candidate must win more than 15% of the vote to be awarded any delegates either statewide or within a Congressional district.

As of this writing, there were five declared candidates for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination:

  • Former Vice President Joe Biden
  • Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg
  • United States House of Representatives Member from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard
  • United States Senator (“Senator”) from Vermont Bernie Sanders
  • Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren

Bloomberg will actually be appearing on a ballot for the first time. And as I was writing this, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar ended her campaign—and, like former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, endorsed Biden.

In the remainder of this post, I present final WAPA (weighted-adjusted polling average), calculated multiple ways depending upon available data, for each candidate in each state, sorted by poll closing time; polls are up-to-date as of 2 am EST March 3, 2020. All publicly-available polls conducted since January 1, 2019 may be found here.

And here is my updated weighting scheme:

  • Polls conducted entirely or partially after February 3, 2020, but before February 12, 2020 are weighted 2.00 or 1.00+fraction[2] times, respectively, higher than polls conducted entirely before February 4, 2020.
  • Polls conducted entirely or partially after February 11, 2020, but before February 23, 2020 are weighted 3.00 or 2.00+fraction times, respectively, higher than polls conducted entirely before February 12, 2020.
  • Polls conducted entirely or partially after February 22, 2020, but before March 1, 2020 are weighted 4.00 or 3.00+fraction times, respectively, higher than polls conducted entirely before February 23, 2020.
  • Polls conducted entirely or partially after February 29, 2020, but before March 4, 2020 are weighted 5.00 or 4.00+fraction times, respectively, higher than polls conducted entirely before February 29, 2020.

To provide context for the percentage either truly undecided or selecting a different candidate (“DK/Other”), I also include the final state WAPA for Buttigieg, Klobuchar and billionaire activist Tom Steyer combined (“B/K/S”); their supporters consistently comprise a sizeable proportion of the “DK/Other” group adding a great deal of additional uncertainty to the outcomes of Tuesday’s races.

7 pm EST

Vermont

IMG_2671 (2)

Only one poll was conducted of Sanders’ home state, by Braun Research between February 4 and February 10, 2020; according to FiveThirtyEight.com’s pollster ratings, they have a B-/C+ rating.  Sanders led with 51%; no other candidate reached the 15% delegate threshold. It is very likely Sanders will accrue most if not all of the 16 available pledged delegates.

Virginia

Here is the breakdown of publicly-available polls of the 2020 Virginia Democratic Primary:

  • 8 since January 1, 2019
  • 5 since the Iowa Caucuses on February 3, 2020

Table 2: Final Virginia Primary WAPA for declared 2020 Democratic presidential nomination candidates

Candidate All Polls February 2020
Biden 28.1 29.4
Sanders 23.4 24.2
Bloomberg 14.2 14.7
Warren 10.1 10.5
Gabbard 0.7 0.6
DK/Other 23.5 20.5
B/K/S 12.0 11.5

Both Biden and Sanders appear to have some momentum in Virginia going into Super Tuesday. In fact, in two polls conducted entirely after the South Carolina Primary, albeit with a C/C+ average, Biden averages 43.5% to Sanders’ 26.5%; neither Warren nor Bloomberg top 12%. If this holds, Biden could easily win well over half of Virginia’s 99 pledged delegates, with Sanders winning most of the rest, and allowing for the possibility Bloomberg and/or Warren top the 15% threshold in at least one of the Commonwealth’s 11 Congressional districts.

7:30 pm EST

North Carolina

Here is the breakdown of publicly-available polls of the 2020 North Carolina Democratic Primary:

  • 22 since January 1, 2019
  • 13 since the Iowa Caucuses on February 3, 2020 (one poll overlapped)

 Table 3: Final North Carolina Primary WAPA for declared 2020 Democratic presidential nomination candidates

Candidate All Polls Post Iowa Caucuses
Biden 23.6 22.0
Sanders 22.8 23.8
Bloomberg 14.9 17.1
Warren 11.7 11.2
Gabbard 1.0 1.0
DK/Other 21.4 19.7
B/K/S 13.9 15.0

Similar to neighboring Virginia, it is difficult to discern momentum in these data, especially with just more than one in five potential voters either genuinely undecided or choosing a different candidate. Nonetheless, if these percentages are predictive, Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg will most likely divide the state’s 99 pledged delegates between them, though Warren could top the 15% threshold in at least one of the state’s 13 Congressional districts.

What these two Eastern seaboard southern states have in common is they will provide the first tests of two propositions:

  1. Biden has significant momentum, at least in southern states, from his landslide win in South Carolina.
  2. Bloomberg will fade following two poor debate performances.

8 pm EST

Alabama

Only two polls were conducted here, both in 2019: by Change Research between March 20 and March 23 and by Survey Monkey between July 2 and July 16; these pollsters have an average rating of C-/D+, so caution is urged. Still, Alabama resembles South Carolina in many ways, so Biden’s weighted average of 38.3%–with no other candidate topping 15%–is likely highly predictive; Biden could easily win the vast majority of the 52 available pledged delegates.

Maine

IMG_2771

Only five polls were conducted of the 2020 Maine Democratic Presidential Primary, of which two were conducted after the Iowa Caucuses: one by SocialSphere (B-/C+) between February 10 and 13, 2020, and one by Change Research (C) between March 1 and 2, 2020.

Table 4: Final Maine Primary WAPA for declared 2020 Democratic presidential nomination candidates

Candidate All Polls February 2020
Sanders 31.2 36.3
Biden 20.3 19.5
Warren 16.0 13.4
Bloomberg 8.9 11.5
Gabbard 0.9 1.1
DK/Other 21.6 16.7
B/K/S 8.4 8.2

Fellow New Englander Sanders would appear to have momentum in Maine, and could easily more than half of the state’s 24 pledged delegates, with Biden and, possibly, Warren splitting the remainder.

Massachusetts

In the interest of full disclosure, here is the relevant portion of the ballot I cast last Thursday in the 2020 Massachusetts Democratic Presidential Primary:

Voting for Warren 2020

Here is the breakdown of publicly-available polls of the 2020 Massachusettts Democratic Primary:

  • 11 since January 1, 2019
  • 5 since the Iowa Caucuses on February 3, 2020

Table 5: Final Massachusetts Primary WAPA for declared 2020 Democratic presidential nomination candidates

Candidate All Polls Post Iowa Caucuses
Sanders 21.5 22.3
Warren 21.1 20.5
Biden 13.3 12.1
Bloomberg 10.4 11.5
Gabbard 2.4 2.5
DK/Other 31.4 31.1
B/K/S 21.8 23.8

It is very likely Sanders and Warren—who may not win her home state on Super Tuesday—will divide the Commonwealth’s 91 pledged delegates roughly evenly between them, though I would not discount the possibility Biden and/or Bloomberg winning at least 15% of the vote in one or more of Massachusetts’ nine Congressional districts.

 Oklahoma

Only three polls have been conducted of the 2020 Oklahoma Democratic Presidential Primary, though two of those were conducted after the Iowa Caucuses: one by SoonerPoll.com (B-/C+) from February 17 to 21 and one by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (B-/C+) from February 10 to 13.

Table 6: Final Oklahoma Primary WAPA for declared 2020 Democratic presidential nomination candidates

Candidate All Polls Post Iowa Caucuses
Bloomberg 18.1 19.2
Biden 17.3 17.3
Sanders 11.6 12.1
Warren 8.7 8.6
Gabbard 0.0 0.0
DK/Other 44.3 42.8
B/K/S 16.3 17.2

While this appears to be a battle between Bloomberg, Biden and Sanders, I think Biden is very likely to win a large majority of the state’s 37 pledged delegates. Still, the more than 40% not choosing one of the five remaining declared candidates makes the outcome of this contest especially uncertain.

Tennessee

Only one poll has been conducted of the 2020 Tennessee Democratic Primary, by SurveyMonkey (D-) between July 2 and July 16, 2019. Biden led the poll with 33%, however, signaling the possibility he will win the vast majority of the state’s 64 pledged delegates.

Texas

Here is the breakdown of publicly-available polls of the 2020 Texas Democratic Primary:

  • 35 since January 1, 2019
  • 12 since the Iowa Caucuses on February 3, 2020

Table 7: Final Texas Primary WAPA for declared 2020 Democratic presidential nomination candidates

Candidate All Polls Post Iowa Caucuses
Sanders 26.7 28.7
Biden 22.4 21.9
Bloomberg 13.8 16.8
Warren 12.7 12.6
Gabbard 1.3 1.4
DK/Other 23.1 18.6
B/K/S 11.9 13.1

Sanders and Bloomberg would appear to have momentum in Texas heading into Super Tuesday, though it is a much closer race for delegates between Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg, with Warren likely accumulating some pledged delegates in around one-third of the state’s 36 Congressional districts. Still, it would not be a surprise to see Sanders win a plurality of the state’s 228 pledged delegates, with Biden not too far behind him.

8:30 pm EST

Arkansas

Only one poll was conducted here, by Hendrix College (B-/C+) between February 6 and 7, 2020. Bloomberg “led” with 20%, followed by Biden (19%), Sanders and Buttigieg each with 16%, and Warren at 9%; Gabbard was not included in the poll. A total of 36% were either undecided or chose a different candidate, with 21% choosing either Buttigieg or Klobuchar (Steyer was not included). Assuming a Biden surge and a Bloomberg collapse, however, I would expect Biden to win at least a plurality, if not an outright majority of the state’s 31 pledged delegates, with most of the remainder going to Sanders.

9 pm EST

Colorado

Only five polls have been conducted of the 2020 Colorado Democratic Presidential Primary, though three of those were conducted after the Iowa Caucuses.

Table 8: Final Colorado Primary WAPA for declared 2020 Democratic presidential nomination candidates

Candidate All Polls Post Iowa Caucuses
Sanders 30.8 31.6
Warren 16.5 16.4
Biden 11.7 10.3
Bloomberg 10.2 11.4
Gabbard 0.7 0.7
DK/Other 30.1 29.6
B/K/S 16.8 18.0

Sanders is very likely to win Colorado, though perhaps “only” by a high-single-digit margin, thus accruing a majority of the state’s 67 pledged delegates. Still, Warren could potentially finish a close second, winning a few dozen delegates herself. Biden might also accrue a handful of pledged delegates here.

Minnesota

This, of course, is Klobuchar’s home state, so extrapolating from existing polls is extremely tricky. Moreover, only four polls have been conducted of the 2020 Minnesota Democratic Presidential Primary, though two of those were conducted after the Iowa Caucuses: one by Mason-Dixon Research & Polling Inc. (B+) from February 17 to 20 and one by University of Massachusetts, Lowell (A-/B+) from February 13 to 19.

Table 9: Final Minnesota Primary WAPA for declared 2020 Democratic presidential nomination candidates

Candidate All Polls Post Iowa Caucuses
Sanders 19.0 22.0
Warren 18.3 13.6
Biden 12.8 8.5
Bloomberg 3.0 6.1
Gabbard 1.3 2.5
DK/Other 46.7 47.3
B/K/S 29.9 (Klobuchar 21.8) 35.1 (Klobuchar 28.0)

As with Colorado, Sanders now seems poised to win Minnesota, though perhaps “only” by a high-single-digit margin over Warren and Biden. Those three are likely to win nearly all of the state’s 75 pledged delegates, barring Klobuchar still receiving a significant share of the vote, particularly among those who voted early.

Utah

Only two polls were conducted here, by Suffolk University (A-) between January 18 and 22, 2020 and by HarrisX (C+) between February 22 and 26, 2020. Sanders leads across these two polls with 27.7%, followed by Bloomberg at 16.5%, Warren at 14.7%, Biden at 7.7% and Gabbard at 0.3%; fully one-third of voters (33.1%) were either truly undecided or chose a different candidate, of whom more than half (18.4%) chose Buttigieg, Klobuchar or Steyer. While, as with the other states whose polls close at 9 pm, Sanders is the favorite to win at least a plurality of Utah’s 29 pledged delegates, Warren could once again surprise here with a strong second place showing, with Biden the wildcard.

11 pm EST

California

IMG_3510

Given the Golden State’s propensity for counting votes slowly, and the fact their 415 pledged delegates represent nearly one-third (31%) of those available on Super Tuesday, the full impact of these 16 contests on the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination may not come fully into focus until early Wednesday morning, at the absolute earliest.

Here is the breakdown of publicly-available polls of the 2020 California Democratic Primary:

  • 53 since January 1, 2019
  • 16 since the Iowa Caucuses on February 3, 2020 (one conducted almost entirely afterward)

Table 10: Final California Primary WAPA for declared 2020 Democratic presidential nomination candidates

Candidate All Polls Post Iowa Caucuses
Sanders 28.7 31.5
Biden 17.8 16.3
Warren 15.2 14.1
Bloomberg 10.4 12.9
Gabbard 1.8 1.9
DK/Other 26.1 23.2
B/K/S 14.2 15.3

The only question about the 2020 California Democratic Primary is how large Sanders’ margin of victory will be. The corollary question is whether Warren and/or Bloomberg reach 15% statewide and/or in any of the state’s 53 Congressional districts. If not, Sanders could possibly win two-thirds of the state’s 415 pledged delegates, netting a minimum of 138 delegates over Biden in just one state.

Later

American Samoa, Democrats Abroad

There is no polling to indicate how the 19 total pledged delegates available from these two jurisdictions will be divided among the candidates.

**********

Perhaps the only two indisputable things we know about Super Tuesday are that a) Sanders appears to be the only candidate who is competitive everywhere, and b) there are an unusually high number of voters either truly undecided or choosing a different candidate in pre-primary polling.

To get a sense of just how good a day Sanders could have—or not–here is a very back-of-the-envelope pseudo-prediction for the number of pledged delegates each candidate will receive on Super Tuesday, based on the following extremely arbitrary assumptions:

  1. Excluding a slight uptick from “DK/Other” voters, Sanders’s Super Tuesday percentages will closely match his final WAPA
  2. Biden will see an uptick in this final WAPA equivalent to 20% of the final WAPA for Bloomberg.
  3. Bloomberg’s results will be 80% of his final WAPA, with no uptick from “DK/Other” voters
  4. B/K/S will split their votes this way:
    1. 50% for B/K/S
    2. 20% each for Biden and Warren
    3. 10% for Sanders
  5. The remaining “DK/Other” voters will split:
    1. 45% each for Biden and Warren
    2. 10% for Sanders
  6. The 19 pledged delegates from American Samoa and Democrats Abroad will split 7 Sanders, 7 Biden, 3 Warren, 2 Bloomberg
  7. There is no substantive difference between statewide and Congressional-district allocation of pledged delegates. This is by far the least-defensible assumption.

Based upon those quite rosy assumptions for Biden and Warren, here is my extremely timey-wimey, wibbly-wobbly not-quite prediction for the distribution of pledged delegates awarded on Super Tuesday:

Biden              470

Sanders          464

Warren           284

Bloomberg     139

I have to say, this rather surprised me—until I realized just how well Biden could do in Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas and Oklahoma, and that he is likely to make the 15% threshold in every state. However, if I distribute the B/K/S and “pure” DK/Other votes evenly between Biden, Sanders and Warren, the delegate allocation looks like this:

Sanders          501

Biden              451

Warren           263

Bloomberg     139

This small tweak in assumptions is the difference between Biden and Sanders being effectively tied in pledged delegates after Super Tuesday and Sanders having a nearly-70 delegate lead.

And that is a huge difference.

We shall see.

Until next time…

[1] An additional 764, at least, “automatic delegates” (also known as “superdelegates”)—mostly elected Democrats—would vote on a second ballot if not candidate clears the 1,991 vote threshold on the first ballot at the Democratic National Convention.

[2] Percentage of days the poll was being conducted were after the most recent primary or caucuses

4 thoughts on “2020 Super Tuesday contests: My final polling update

  1. This is off subject (sorry) but have you noticed the ads on TV? Usually I have to mute the TV because of all the bashing they do to each other. So far, they have been halfway decent human beings by focusing on their own accomplishments instead. I’m sure it will change…lol Thanks for keeping us up to date with the numbers.

    Liked by 1 person

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