On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. Three months ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out
Given the extremely volatile polling for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination now that voting has commenced, I will not provide global monthly updates for the next few months. Instead, I will focus on the first handful of primaries and caucuses: Iowa on February 3, New Hampshire on February 11, Nevada on February 22, South Carolina … Continue reading 2020 South Carolina Primary: How did my final polling averages fare?
From 7 am to 7 pm EST on February 29, 2020, polls will be open in South Carolina for that state’s Democratic presidential primary. This election follows similar contests in Iowa and New Hampshire in which United States Senator (“Senator”) from Vermont Bernie Sanders and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg fared very well, … Continue reading 2020 South Carolina Primary: Final Polling Update
This site benefits/suffers/both from consisting of posts about a wide range of topics, all linked under the amorphous heading "data-driven storytelling." In an attempt to impose some coherent structure, I am organizing related posts both chronologically and thematically. Given that I have multiple degrees in political science, with an emphasis on American politics, it is … Continue reading Organizing by themes I: American politics