A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022

In a recent post, I assessed it was fairly likely Republicans regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022. In this post, I turn my attention to the two gubernatorial elections to be held in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022. My goal … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022 →

How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?

[Eds. note: As of September 5, 2022, you may find updated House Democratic majority probabilities on the home page. Probabilities are calculated two ways: 1) using all generic ballot polls since January 1, 2021, 2) and using polls conducted since Labor Day 2022.] On March 31, 2021, nearly five months after Election Day 2020, Democrat … Continue reading How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022? →

Walter Mondale, Perry Mason and George Floyd

This is how I conclude the opening section of Chapter 1 of Interrogating Memory: Film Noir Spurs a Deep Dive Into My Family History…and My Own (publication TBD): I also learned that by 1920, Pennsylvania was the 2nd most common American state for the last name “Berger” (14%), behind only New York (23%),[i] which meant … Continue reading Walter Mondale, Perry Mason and George Floyd →

The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections

On November 3, 2020, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected president and vice president, respectively, of the United States. According to data from Dave Leip’s essential Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, the Biden-Harris ticket won 51.3% of the nearly 158.6 million votes cast. Turnout shattered the previous record of 137.1 million votes cast … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections →

Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats

On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. One month ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats →

The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real

As I detail here, the Electoral College (“EC”), not direct popular vote, determines who wins American presidential elections. Since 1856, the first presidential election in which the two major candidates were a Democrat (James Buchanan) and Republican (John C. Fremont), there were four presidential elections in which one candidate won the EC while another candidate … Continue reading The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real →

Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out

On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. Three months ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out →

Dispatches from Brookline: Home Schooling and Social Distancing IV

On Monday, March 23, 2020, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker called for the closure of all non-essential businesses and asked residents to stay in their home as much as possible: to “shelter in place.” The order went in to effect at noon on Tuesday, March 24, and it will stay in effect until noon at April … Continue reading Dispatches from Brookline: Home Schooling and Social Distancing IV →

2020 Democratic primaries on March 17, 2020: My final polling update

[Update, 4:02 pm EST on March 17, 2020: Ohio did postpone its Democratic presidential primary, though all votes cast early will still count toward the final result--and will be extended until June 2, when in-person voting will occur. Swayble (C+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.com) released polls of the four states scheduled to hold primaries today. The … Continue reading 2020 Democratic primaries on March 17, 2020: My final polling update →

2020 Super Tuesday contests: My final polling update

[Ed. note: A few hours after I published this, a complete set of Super Tuesday polls was released by Swayable (C+) and Data for Progress (B-/C+), as well as a Spry Strategies poll (C-/D+) of North Carolina. I did not update each state's final WAPA, though I did update the projected distribution of pledged delegates.] … Continue reading 2020 Super Tuesday contests: My final polling update →