On November 3, 2020, the United States ended a weeks-long electoral process. At stake was the presidency, control of the United States Senate (“Senate”) and House of Representatives (“House”), 11 governor’s mansions, and thousands of state and local offices. That day, I published “cheat sheets” to guide election viewers through state-level presidential returns, 35 Senate … Continue reading 2020 Elections Post-Mortem
Category: Statistical reasonsing
Quinnipiac University and Emerson College: Mirror-image pollsters?
In three earlier posts—most recently here—I analyzed all polls conducted by Emerson College (“Emerson”) of 2020 presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial elections. I found that they had a clear bias towards the Republican candidate, on average, compared to all other polls of the same election. As I continue to analyze polls of the presidential election between … Continue reading Quinnipiac University and Emerson College: Mirror-image pollsters?
Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats
On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. One month ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats
The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real
As I detail here, the Electoral College (“EC”), not direct popular vote, determines who wins American presidential elections. Since 1856, the first presidential election in which the two major candidates were a Democrat (James Buchanan) and Republican (John C. Fremont), there were four presidential elections in which one candidate won the EC while another candidate … Continue reading The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real
An update on Emerson College polling
In two essays I published in November 2019 (here and here), I addressed differences between polling results obtained by highly-respected Emerson College and those from other pollsters in the same race. Emerson College has an A- rating from FiveThirtyEight.com, and their analysts calculate that, on average, Emerson College polls are about 0.3 points more Democratic … Continue reading An update on Emerson College polling
Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out
On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. Three months ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out
Quantifying Biden’s choices for running mate
Presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden Jr. stated in a May 27, 2020 interview he hoped to choose his vice-presidential running mate by August 1. In March, Biden definitively stated he would choose a woman to run with him. Meanwhile, a recent Morning Consult poll tested the relative strength of nine rumored candidates, … Continue reading Quantifying Biden’s choices for running mate
Biden vs. Trump: The view from six months out
A note to readers: I have temporarily stopped writing “dispatches” about how my wife Nell, our two daughters and I cope with social distancing and the closure of Massachusetts schools through the end of the 2019-20 school year because they started to feel repetitive. When and if that changes, I will resume dispatching. ********** As … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump: The view from six months out
Updating the Doctors: 13 is not a lucky number for Jodie Whittaker
One of the first data-driven essays to appear on this website was a three-part assessment of every episode of Doctor Who following its revival in March 2005. You may find those three essays—as well as a, frankly, much better written July 2018 update—here; you will also find a much longer essay I wrote demonstrating the … Continue reading Updating the Doctors: 13 is not a lucky number for Jodie Whittaker
Dispatches from Brookline: Home Schooling and Social Distancing V
On Wednesday, March 25, 2020, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker issued an executive order extending the closure of all public schools in the Commonwealth until at least May 4, 2020. In four previous posts (I, II, III, IV), I described how my wife Nell, our two daughters—one in 4th grade and one in 6th grade—and I … Continue reading Dispatches from Brookline: Home Schooling and Social Distancing V
Just Bear With Me... 