On October 3, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 13 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Candidate Quality Still Matters
Category: Political parties
2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables
I first observed an arithmetic Republican lean in Emerson College (“Emerson”) polling in November 2019. Specifically, Emerson College polling of hypothetical 2020 matchups between leading Democrats (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren) and President Donald J. Trump had shifted 4.7 percentage points (“points”) Republican since September 1, using the Democratic percentage minus the Republican percentage … Continue reading 2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables
Tracking the generic ballot polls…and those pesky Undecideds
In May 2017, I launched the “A Wicked Early Look” series with an assessment of Democrats’ 2018 election United States Senate (“Senate”) prospects. The next month I wrote an analogous essay about the gubernatorial elections later that November and in 2018. Borrowing a concept from FiveThirtyEight.com forecasting models, I began to calculate what I call … Continue reading Tracking the generic ballot polls…and those pesky Undecideds
A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022
In two recent posts, I… Determined it was fairly likely Republicans will regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022Examined the “fundamentals” underlying Democrats’ prospects in the 38 gubernatorial elections in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and 2022, landing tentatively on between a net loss of one and a net gain of … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022
A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022
In a recent post, I assessed it was fairly likely Republicans regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022. In this post, I turn my attention to the two gubernatorial elections to be held in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022. My goal … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022
The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
On November 3, 2020, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected president and vice president, respectively, of the United States. According to data from Dave Leip’s essential Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, the Biden-Harris ticket won 51.3% of the nearly 158.6 million votes cast. Turnout shattered the previous record of 137.1 million votes cast … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real
As I detail here, the Electoral College (“EC”), not direct popular vote, determines who wins American presidential elections. Since 1856, the first presidential election in which the two major candidates were a Democrat (James Buchanan) and Republican (John C. Fremont), there were four presidential elections in which one candidate won the EC while another candidate … Continue reading The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real
Quantifying Biden’s choices for running mate
Presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden Jr. stated in a May 27, 2020 interview he hoped to choose his vice-presidential running mate by August 1. In March, Biden definitively stated he would choose a woman to run with him. Meanwhile, a recent Morning Consult poll tested the relative strength of nine rumored candidates, … Continue reading Quantifying Biden’s choices for running mate
An (Electoral) College education
Imagine it is late on the evening of Tuesday, November 2, 2004. Actually, it is closer to 5 am EST on the morning of Wednesday, November 3, 2004. Since 7 pm EST the previous night, CNN has been presenting the results of the 2004 presidential election between incumbent President George W. Bush, a Republican, and … Continue reading An (Electoral) College education
Organizing by themes I: American politics
This site benefits/suffers/both from consisting of posts about a wide range of topics, all linked under the amorphous heading "data-driven storytelling." In an attempt to impose some coherent structure, I am organizing related posts both chronologically and thematically. Given that I have multiple degrees in political science, with an emphasis on American politics, it is … Continue reading Organizing by themes I: American politics
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