A Wicked Early Look at the 2025 and 2026 Gubernatorial Elections

It is time to take a wicked early look at the 36 American gubernatorial elections scheduled to end on November 3, 2026, plus the two scheduled to end on November 4, 2025. Republicans currently have the edge in governors, 27- 23. If Democrats net win three of these 38 gubernatorial elections, they will hold a … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2025 and 2026 Gubernatorial Elections →

A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections

It is time to take a wicked early look at the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) scheduled to end on November 3, 2026. Republicans are defending a 53-45-2 majority, although two Independents – Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont – vote with Democrats to organize the Senate. If Democrats … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections →

The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition

On November 5, 2024, Republican Donald Trump was reelected president of the United States, with J.D. Vance elected to the vice presidency. Trump is only the second president – after Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892 – to lose reelection then win again four years later. Trump also became the first Republican presidential nominee to win … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition →

A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election

Our first look at the 2024 elections ends with the biggest prize of all: the presidency of the United States. Following big wins by Republican former president Donald J. Trump in the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, it is reasonable to assume a rematch of 2020, except now Democrat Joseph R. Biden, Jr. is … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election →

A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

We turn now to the 11 gubernatorial elections scheduled for 2024. Currently, there are 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors; Democrats have not held a majority of governor’s mansions since 2010. As with my recent preview of the 2024 Senate elections, this “somewhat wicked early” look is based almost entirely on “fundamentals,” or what … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections →

A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 US Senate Elections

I am a bit late to the party this year. Normally, I publish “wicked early looks” at elections for United States Senate (“Senate”), governor, United States House of Representatives (“House”) and – in years divisible by four – president, in the spring of the preceding year. For various reasons, however, including developing a YouTube channel … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 US Senate Elections →

2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1)

I first previewed 2022 United States midterm elections, which ended on November 8, 2022, in three June 2021 essays. First, I updated my single-variable model of elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”). In the second and third essays, I took a “wicked early” look at, respectively, the 36 elections for governor and … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1) →

2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear

On October 24, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 26 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear →

2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt

On October 17, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt →

2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns

On October 10, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 15 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns →