On November 5, 2024, Republican Donald Trump was reelected president of the United States, with J.D. Vance elected to the vice presidency. Trump is only the second president – after Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892 – to lose reelection then win again four years later. Trump also became the first Republican presidential nominee to win … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition
Category: Electoral College
2024 Election Analysis Archive
ELECTION 2024 DASHBOARD As of November 5, 8:03 AM EST Presidential election: Polls assessing Democratic Vice President Kamala D. Harris and former Republican President Donald J. Trump are divided into those which do (weight: “number polls/3”; n=87) and do not (weight: “number of polls”; n=288) include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. When given the option, I … Continue reading 2024 Election Analysis Archive
A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election
Our first look at the 2024 elections ends with the biggest prize of all: the presidency of the United States. Following big wins by Republican former president Donald J. Trump in the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, it is reasonable to assume a rematch of 2020, except now Democrat Joseph R. Biden, Jr. is … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election
2020 Elections Post-Mortem
On November 3, 2020, the United States ended a weeks-long electoral process. At stake was the presidency, control of the United States Senate (“Senate”) and House of Representatives (“House”), 11 governor’s mansions, and thousands of state and local offices. That day, I published “cheat sheets” to guide election viewers through state-level presidential returns, 35 Senate … Continue reading 2020 Elections Post-Mortem
Your 2020 Election Cheat Sheets
Election Day 2020 has finally arrived. More accurately, the end of election season comes today, as over 100 million Americans have already voted. To help guide you through the coming hours of media coverage, I have attached two PDFs. The first one allows you to track the results of the presidential election. For my last … Continue reading Your 2020 Election Cheat Sheets
Biden is now the clear favorite to win the 2020 presidential election
On November 3, 2020, a weeks-long presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will end. As I write this, more than 23 million Americans—including yours truly—have already cast their ballots. This number is just over 1/6 of total votes cast in 2016. Following … Continue reading Biden is now the clear favorite to win the 2020 presidential election
As the 2020 presidential debates begin, Biden maintains a solid lead
On November 3, 2020, a weeks-long presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will end. In fact, as I write this, more than 1 million Americans have already cast their ballots. With the first presidential debate scheduled to begin at 9 pm EST … Continue reading As the 2020 presidential debates begin, Biden maintains a solid lead
Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats
On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. One month ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats
The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real
As I detail here, the Electoral College (“EC”), not direct popular vote, determines who wins American presidential elections. Since 1856, the first presidential election in which the two major candidates were a Democrat (James Buchanan) and Republican (John C. Fremont), there were four presidential elections in which one candidate won the EC while another candidate … Continue reading The Republican advantage in the Electoral College is real
Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out
On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. Three months ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out
Just Bear With Me... 