2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt

On October 17, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt →

2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns

On October 10, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 15 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns →

2022 Elections Update: Candidate Quality Still Matters

On October 3, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 13 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Candidate Quality Still Matters →

2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments?

On September 26, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 14 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments? →

2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations

On September 19, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations →

2022 Elections Update: Rethinking polling margins of error

On Labor Day 2022, I published my first set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate and 36 elections for governor. In the ensuing two weeks, an additional … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Rethinking polling margins of error →

2022 Elections: The View from Labor Day

It has been more than a year since I first addressed the 2022 elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”) and Senate (“Senate”), as well as for governor. In June 2021, the political outlook was dire for Democrats, as I concluded it was extremely likely they would lose their majority in the House, … Continue reading 2022 Elections: The View from Labor Day →

2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables

I first observed an arithmetic Republican lean in Emerson College (“Emerson”) polling in November 2019. Specifically, Emerson College polling of hypothetical 2020 matchups between leading Democrats (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren) and President Donald J. Trump had shifted 4.7 percentage points (“points”) Republican since September 1, using the Democratic percentage minus the Republican percentage … Continue reading 2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables →

Tracking the generic ballot polls…and those pesky Undecideds

In May 2017, I launched the “A Wicked Early Look” series with an assessment of Democrats’ 2018 election United States Senate (“Senate”) prospects. The next month I wrote an analogous essay about the gubernatorial elections later that November and in 2018. Borrowing a concept from FiveThirtyEight.com forecasting models, I began to calculate what I call … Continue reading Tracking the generic ballot polls…and those pesky Undecideds →

A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022

In two recent posts, I… Determined it was fairly likely Republicans will regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022Examined the “fundamentals” underlying Democrats’ prospects in the 38 gubernatorial elections in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and 2022, landing tentatively on between a net loss of one and a net gain of … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look At U.S. Senate Races in 2022 →