Assessing polling accuracy in 2024

The primary inspiration for this website was FiveThirtyEight.com. When I started to collect and analyze election polling data in earnest early in 2018, I followed its lead by developing my own polling aggregation: WAPA (weighted-adjusted polling average). I adjusted/weighted polls for recency, pollster quality, partisan lean, whether only adults were queried and whether percentages summed … Continue reading Assessing polling accuracy in 2024 →

A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections

It is time to take a wicked early look at the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) scheduled to end on November 3, 2026. Republicans are defending a 53-45-2 majority, although two Independents – Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont – vote with Democrats to organize the Senate. If Democrats … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections →

The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition

On November 5, 2024, Republican Donald Trump was reelected president of the United States, with J.D. Vance elected to the vice presidency. Trump is only the second president – after Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892 – to lose reelection then win again four years later. Trump also became the first Republican presidential nominee to win … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition →

2024 Election Analysis Archive

ELECTION 2024 DASHBOARD As of November 5, 8:03 AM EST Presidential election: Polls assessing Democratic Vice President Kamala D. Harris and former Republican President Donald J. Trump are divided into those which do (weight: “number polls/3”; n=87) and do not (weight: “number of polls”; n=288) include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. When given the option, I … Continue reading 2024 Election Analysis Archive →

Assessing Kamala Harris’ running mate choices

On the evening of July 22, 2024, Vice President Kamala D. Harris secured enough endorsements from delegates to the Democratic National Convention to become the de facto 2024 Democratic presidential nominee. Three days later, Harris announced she would choose a vice-presidential running mate by August 7. During the early summers of 2016 and 2020, I … Continue reading Assessing Kamala Harris’ running mate choices →

A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 US Senate Elections

I am a bit late to the party this year. Normally, I publish “wicked early looks” at elections for United States Senate (“Senate”), governor, United States House of Representatives (“House”) and – in years divisible by four – president, in the spring of the preceding year. For various reasons, however, including developing a YouTube channel … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 US Senate Elections →

2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2)

A few days ago, I took our golden retriever Casper to a local park for a long run. It was late at night – or, rather, early in the morning – so we had the park virtually to ourselves. I used a Chuckit! to fling an oversized tennis ball against a high chain link fence … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2) →

2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1)

I first previewed 2022 United States midterm elections, which ended on November 8, 2022, in three June 2021 essays. First, I updated my single-variable model of elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”). In the second and third essays, I took a “wicked early” look at, respectively, the 36 elections for governor and … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1) →

2022 Elections Update: Final Projections

On October 31, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 22 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Final Projections →

2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear

On October 24, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 26 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear →