Monthly since April 2019, I have updated my weighted-adjusted polling averages for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. You may read about my aggregation methods here, but a key difference between my algorithm and those used by some other polling aggregators (e.g. RealClearPolitics) is that I use every publicly-available poll (as listed on FiveThirtyEight.com) released since … Continue reading Looking in the mirror, 2020 Democratic nomination polls edition
Category: Presidential nominations
August 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
It has been just over two weeks since the second Democratic presidential nomination debates, so it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the 23 declared candidates remaining. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel ended his campaign on August 6, 2019, and it appears former Colorado John Hickenlooper will end his bid … Continue reading August 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
July 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
With the second Democratic presidential nomination debates scheduled for the evenings of Tuesday, July 30, 2019 and Wednesday, July 30, 2019, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the 25 declared candidates; because United States House of Representatives member (“Representative”) Eric Swalwell of California dropped out of the race on July 8, … Continue reading July 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Road trips and the fine art of tipping (Epilogue)
Following the election of Republican Donald J. Trump as president of the United States in 2016, I immediately began to donate small sums to a wide variety of organizations and political candidates. And as the race to the be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee began to take shape, I began making $10 donations to my … Continue reading Road trips and the fine art of tipping (Epilogue)
The first 2020 Democratic debates, or Why the Trump campaign should be nervous…
With the first Democratic presidential nomination debates scheduled for Wednesday, June 26, 2019 and Thursday, June 27, 2019, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the 25 declared candidates; former United States House of Representatives member (“Representative”) Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania declared his candidacy June 23, 2019). For details on how I … Continue reading The first 2020 Democratic debates, or Why the Trump campaign should be nervous…
June 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Here is the June 2019 photograph (Marshall Point Lighthouse) on my “Maine Lighthouses” Down East wall calendar. This photograph introduces my monthly update of this recent post, which addresses polling data for Democratic candidates for president in 2020. ********** I begin with the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, which I assess using my NSW-WAPA (national-and-state-weighted weighted-adjusted … Continue reading June 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
May 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
It has become a tradition that for my birthday my wife and daughters present me with a new Maine (usually lighthouse-themed) wall calendar from Down East. Last year was no exception; here is the May 2019 entry on my “Maine Lighthouses” calendar. I use this photograph to introduce what I anticipate to be a monthly … Continue reading May 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Organizing by themes I: American politics
This site benefits/suffers/both from consisting of posts about a wide range of topics, all linked under the amorphous heading "data-driven storytelling." In an attempt to impose some coherent structure, I am organizing related posts both chronologically and thematically. Given that I have multiple degrees in political science, with an emphasis on American politics, it is … Continue reading Organizing by themes I: American politics