Given the extremely volatile polling for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination following the start of primary and caucus voting, I will not provide global monthly updates for the next few months. Instead, I will focus on the first handful of primaries and caucuses: Iowa on February 3, New Hampshire on February 11, Nevada on February … Continue reading 2020 New Hampshire Primary: How did my polling averages fare?
Category: Presidential nominations
2020 New Hampshire Primary: Final Polling Update
[This poll was updated at 4:15 EST on February 11, 2020 to account for a Change Research poll (C) conducted February 8-9, 2020.] At just after midnight EST on February 11, 2020, a total of 27 Democratic voters gathered in the small New Hampshire hamlets of Dixville Notch, Hart’s Location and Millsfield to cast the … Continue reading 2020 New Hampshire Primary: Final Polling Update
2020 Iowa Caucuses: How did my polling averages fare?
Given the extremely volatile polling for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination following the conclusion of the Iowa Caucuses, I will not provide global monthly updates for next few months. Instead, I will focus on the first handful of primaries and caucuses: Iowa on February 3, New Hampshire on February 11, Nevada on February 22, South … Continue reading 2020 Iowa Caucuses: How did my polling averages fare?
The 2020 Democratic Iowa Caucuses: Final Update
[Eds. note: This post was updated at 4 pm EST on February 3, 2020 to reflect on final Iowa Caucuses poll.] At 7 PM Iowa time (8 pm EST) on February 3, 2020, Iowans will gather in nearly 1,700 precinct-level meeting places to support their preferred candidate to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. They … Continue reading The 2020 Democratic Iowa Caucuses: Final Update
January 2020 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
As of January 14, 2020—and the seventh Democratic presidential nomination debate in Des Moines, Iowa—there are only… 20 days until the Iowa Caucuses, 28 days until the New Hampshire Primary, 39 days until the Nevada Caucuses, 46 days until the South Carolina Primary, and 49 days until 10 states vote on “Super Tuesday,”[1] including California, … Continue reading January 2020 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
December 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
With the sixth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for December 19, 2019 in Los Angeles, California, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-15 declared candidates. Since the previous update, four candidates exited the race: Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam on November 20, former United States House of Representatives Member (“Representative”) … Continue reading December 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
November 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
With the fifth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for November 20, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-18 (19?) declared candidates. Since the previous update, United States House of Representatives Member (“Representative”) Tim Ryan of Ohio exited the race on October 24, followed by former Texas … Continue reading November 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Just under one year until the 2020 presidential election…how does it look for Democrats?
On November 3, 2020, one year from this past Sunday, the United States will hold its next presidential election; technically, the election will conclude that day, given early voting and vote-by-mail opportunities in many states. Once a month since April 2019, I have updated analyses of polling data on hypothetical match-ups between potential candidates for … Continue reading Just under one year until the 2020 presidential election…how does it look for Democrats?
October 2019 update: 2020 Democratic nomination and general election polling
With the fourth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for October 15, 2019 in Westerville, Ohio, it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-19 declared candidates. The more-stringent criteria to qualify for this debate—despite the looming presence of twelve candidates on one stage—led to the announcement by New York City … Continue reading October 2019 update: 2020 Democratic nomination and general election polling
September 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination scenarios and general election polling
With the third Democratic presidential nomination debate set for September 12, 2019 in Houston, Texas, it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-20 declared candidates. The more stringent criteria to qualify for this debate—the first to be held on only one night—presaged the end for three more campaigns. Washington … Continue reading September 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination scenarios and general election polling
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