2020 New Hampshire Primary: How did my polling averages fare?

Given the extremely volatile polling for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination following the start of primary and caucus voting, I will not provide global monthly updates for the next few months. Instead, I will focus on the first handful of primaries and caucuses: Iowa on February 3, New Hampshire on February 11, Nevada on February … Continue reading 2020 New Hampshire Primary: How did my polling averages fare? →

2020 New Hampshire Primary: Final Polling Update

[This poll was updated at 4:15 EST on February 11, 2020 to account for a Change Research poll (C) conducted February 8-9, 2020.] At just after midnight EST on February 11, 2020, a total of 27 Democratic voters gathered in the small New Hampshire hamlets of Dixville Notch, Hart’s Location and Millsfield to cast the … Continue reading 2020 New Hampshire Primary: Final Polling Update →

2020 Iowa Caucuses: How did my polling averages fare?

Given the extremely volatile polling for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination following the conclusion of the Iowa Caucuses, I will not provide global monthly updates for next few months. Instead, I will focus on the first handful of primaries and caucuses: Iowa on February 3, New Hampshire on February 11, Nevada on February 22, South … Continue reading 2020 Iowa Caucuses: How did my polling averages fare? →

The 2020 Democratic Iowa Caucuses: Final Update

[Eds. note: This post was updated at 4 pm EST on February 3, 2020 to reflect on final Iowa Caucuses poll.] At 7 PM Iowa time (8 pm EST) on February 3, 2020, Iowans will gather in nearly 1,700 precinct-level meeting places to support their preferred candidate to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. They … Continue reading The 2020 Democratic Iowa Caucuses: Final Update →

January 2020 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling

As of January 14, 2020—and the seventh Democratic presidential nomination debate in Des Moines, Iowa—there are only… 20 days until the Iowa Caucuses, 28 days until the New Hampshire Primary, 39 days until the Nevada Caucuses, 46 days until the South Carolina Primary, and 49 days until 10 states vote on “Super Tuesday,”[1] including California, … Continue reading January 2020 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling →

December 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling

With the sixth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for December 19, 2019 in Los Angeles, California, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-15 declared candidates. Since the previous update, four candidates exited the race: Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam on November 20, former United States House of Representatives Member (“Representative”) … Continue reading December 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling →

Emerson College polls: Post, and ye shall receive

Five days ago, I wrote about the sharp Republican shift since September 1, 2019 in polls conducted by Emerson College of hypothetical 2020 presidential election matchups between President Donald J. Trump and possible Democratic nominees. Emerson College is a high-quality pollster, rated A- and showing no partisan skew in recent elections according to FiveThirtyEight.com’s pollster … Continue reading Emerson College polls: Post, and ye shall receive →

About those recent Emerson College polls…

I first wrote about Emerson College polls here, using the fact their polls of hypothetical 2020 matchups between a Democrat and President Donald J. Trump force respondents to choose a candidate (i.e., have 0% “other/undecided”) to assess Harris X polls, which often have very high proportions “other/undecided.” At the time, I concluded “other/undecided” Harris X … Continue reading About those recent Emerson College polls… →

November 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling

With the fifth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for November 20, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-18 (19?) declared candidates. Since the previous update, United States House of Representatives Member (“Representative”) Tim Ryan of Ohio exited the race on October 24, followed by former Texas … Continue reading November 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling →

October 2019 update: 2020 Democratic nomination and general election polling

With the fourth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for October 15, 2019 in Westerville, Ohio, it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-19 declared candidates. The more-stringent criteria to qualify for this debate—despite the looming presence of twelve candidates on one stage—led to the announcement by New York City … Continue reading October 2019 update: 2020 Democratic nomination and general election polling →