Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats

On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. One month ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump September 2020: A rising tide lifts more than enough boats →

An update on Emerson College polling

In two essays I published in November 2019 (here and here), I addressed differences between polling results obtained by highly-respected Emerson College and those from other pollsters in the same race. Emerson College has an A- rating from FiveThirtyEight.com, and their analysts calculate that, on average, Emerson College polls are about 0.3 points more Democratic … Continue reading An update on Emerson College polling →

Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out

On November 3, 2020, the presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will mark the end of a weeks-long electoral process. Three months ago, I analyzed all publicly-available polls of the presidential election—nationally and by state, recognizing presidential elections are determined by the … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump: The view from three months out →

Biden vs. Trump: The view from six months out

A note to readers: I have temporarily stopped writing “dispatches” about how my wife Nell, our two daughters and I cope with social distancing and the closure of Massachusetts schools through the end of the 2019-20 school year because they started to feel repetitive. When and if that changes, I will resume dispatching. ********** As … Continue reading Biden vs. Trump: The view from six months out →

Dispatches from Brookline: Home Schooling and Social Distancing V

On Wednesday, March 25, 2020, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker issued an executive order extending the closure of all public schools in the Commonwealth until at least May 4, 2020. In four previous posts (I, II, III, IV), I described how my wife Nell, our two daughters—one in 4th grade and one in 6th grade—and I … Continue reading Dispatches from Brookline: Home Schooling and Social Distancing V →

2020 Super Tuesday contests: My final polling update

[Ed. note: A few hours after I published this, a complete set of Super Tuesday polls was released by Swayable (C+) and Data for Progress (B-/C+), as well as a Spry Strategies poll (C-/D+) of North Carolina. I did not update each state's final WAPA, though I did update the projected distribution of pledged delegates.] … Continue reading 2020 Super Tuesday contests: My final polling update →

2020 South Carolina Primary: How did my final polling averages fare?

Given the extremely volatile polling for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination now that voting has commenced, I will not provide global monthly updates for the next few months. Instead, I will focus on the first handful of primaries and caucuses: Iowa on February 3, New Hampshire on February 11, Nevada on February 22, South Carolina … Continue reading 2020 South Carolina Primary: How did my final polling averages fare? →

2020 South Carolina Primary: Final Polling Update

From 7 am to 7 pm EST on February 29, 2020, polls will be open in South Carolina for that state’s Democratic presidential primary. This election follows similar contests in Iowa and New Hampshire in which United States Senator (“Senator”) from Vermont Bernie Sanders and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg fared very well, … Continue reading 2020 South Carolina Primary: Final Polling Update →

2020 Nevada Caucuses: How did my final polling averages fare?

Given the extremely volatile polling for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination now that voting has commenced, I will not provide global monthly updates for the next few months. Instead, I will focus on the first handful of primaries and caucuses: Iowa on February 3, New Hampshire on February 11, Nevada on February 22, South Carolina … Continue reading 2020 Nevada Caucuses: How did my final polling averages fare? →

2020 Nevada Caucuses: Final Polling Update

At 10 am Nevada time (1 pm EST) on February 22, 2020, Nevadans who did not already vote between February 15 and 18 by submitting a ranking of their three top choices to be the 2020 Democratic nominee will gather in nearly 2,100 meeting places to support their preferred candidate(s). While about 84,000 Nevadans caucused … Continue reading 2020 Nevada Caucuses: Final Polling Update →