A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

We turn now to the 11 gubernatorial elections scheduled for 2024. Currently, there are 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors; Democrats have not held a majority of governor’s mansions since 2010. As with my recent preview of the 2024 Senate elections, this “somewhat wicked early” look is based almost entirely on “fundamentals,” or what … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections →

2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2)

A few days ago, I took our golden retriever Casper to a local park for a long run. It was late at night – or, rather, early in the morning – so we had the park virtually to ourselves. I used a Chuckit! to fling an oversized tennis ball against a high chain link fence … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2) →

2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1)

I first previewed 2022 United States midterm elections, which ended on November 8, 2022, in three June 2021 essays. First, I updated my single-variable model of elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”). In the second and third essays, I took a “wicked early” look at, respectively, the 36 elections for governor and … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1) →

2022 Elections Update: Final Projections

On October 31, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 22 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Final Projections →

2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear

On October 24, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 26 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear →

2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt

On October 17, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt →

2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns

On October 10, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 15 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Split-Ticket Voting Returns →

2022 Elections Update: Candidate Quality Still Matters

On October 3, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 13 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Candidate Quality Still Matters →

2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments?

On September 26, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 14 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Should I adjust my adjustments? →

2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations

On September 19, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Stimulating simulations →