Assessing polling accuracy in 2024

The primary inspiration for this website was FiveThirtyEight.com. When I started to collect and analyze election polling data in earnest early in 2018, I followed its lead by developing my own polling aggregation: WAPA (weighted-adjusted polling average). I adjusted/weighted polls for recency, pollster quality, partisan lean, whether only adults were queried and whether percentages summed … Continue reading Assessing polling accuracy in 2024 →

A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections

It is time to take a wicked early look at the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) scheduled to end on November 3, 2026. Republicans are defending a 53-45-2 majority, although two Independents – Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont – vote with Democrats to organize the Senate. If Democrats … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections →

2024 Election Analysis Archive

ELECTION 2024 DASHBOARD As of November 5, 8:03 AM EST Presidential election: Polls assessing Democratic Vice President Kamala D. Harris and former Republican President Donald J. Trump are divided into those which do (weight: “number polls/3”; n=87) and do not (weight: “number of polls”; n=288) include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. When given the option, I … Continue reading 2024 Election Analysis Archive →