Assessing polling accuracy in 2024

The primary inspiration for this website was FiveThirtyEight.com. When I started to collect and analyze election polling data in earnest early in 2018, I followed its lead by developing my own polling aggregation: WAPA (weighted-adjusted polling average). I adjusted/weighted polls for recency, pollster quality, partisan lean, whether only adults were queried and whether percentages summed … Continue reading Assessing polling accuracy in 2024 →

2024 Election Analysis Archive

ELECTION 2024 DASHBOARD As of November 5, 8:03 AM EST Presidential election: Polls assessing Democratic Vice President Kamala D. Harris and former Republican President Donald J. Trump are divided into those which do (weight: “number polls/3”; n=87) and do not (weight: “number of polls”; n=288) include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. When given the option, I … Continue reading 2024 Election Analysis Archive →

A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election

Our first look at the 2024 elections ends with the biggest prize of all: the presidency of the United States. Following big wins by Republican former president Donald J. Trump in the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, it is reasonable to assume a rematch of 2020, except now Democrat Joseph R. Biden, Jr. is … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election →

A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

We turn now to the 11 gubernatorial elections scheduled for 2024. Currently, there are 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors; Democrats have not held a majority of governor’s mansions since 2010. As with my recent preview of the 2024 Senate elections, this “somewhat wicked early” look is based almost entirely on “fundamentals,” or what … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections →

Will Democrats recapture the House in 2024?

In my last essay, I took a (somewhat) wicked early look at the 34 United States Senate elections scheduled for 2024. I now turn to the 435 elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2024. Specifically, I assess the probability Democrats gain the minimum five seats they need to regain the House … Continue reading Will Democrats recapture the House in 2024? →

Something Is Fishy With Recent Biden Approval Polls

Almost every day, what appear first on FiveThirtyEight’s compilation of the latest polls are new polls assessing whether respondents approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president. As of December 14, 2023 – at least, according to the FiveThirtyEight aggregation method – 38.0% approve of the job Biden is doing as … Continue reading Something Is Fishy With Recent Biden Approval Polls →

2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2)

A few days ago, I took our golden retriever Casper to a local park for a long run. It was late at night – or, rather, early in the morning – so we had the park virtually to ourselves. I used a Chuckit! to fling an oversized tennis ball against a high chain link fence … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2) →

2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1)

I first previewed 2022 United States midterm elections, which ended on November 8, 2022, in three June 2021 essays. First, I updated my single-variable model of elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”). In the second and third essays, I took a “wicked early” look at, respectively, the 36 elections for governor and … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 1) →

2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear

On October 24, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 26 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: This Halloween, Democrats Have Little to Fear →

2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt

On October 17, 2022, I published an updated set of projections for who will have the majority in the United States House of Representatives (“House”) following the 2022 elections, as well as who will win the 35 elections for United States Senate (“Senate”) and 36 elections for governor. Since then, an additional 17 generic ballot … Continue reading 2022 Elections Update: Taking Partisan “Surges” with a Grain of Salt →