Assessing polling accuracy in 2024

The primary inspiration for this website was FiveThirtyEight.com. When I started to collect and analyze election polling data in earnest early in 2018, I followed its lead by developing my own polling aggregation: WAPA (weighted-adjusted polling average). I adjusted/weighted polls for recency, pollster quality, partisan lean, whether only adults were queried and whether percentages summed … Continue reading Assessing polling accuracy in 2024 →

The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition

On November 5, 2024, Republican Donald Trump was reelected president of the United States, with J.D. Vance elected to the vice presidency. Trump is only the second president – after Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892 – to lose reelection then win again four years later. Trump also became the first Republican presidential nominee to win … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition →

2024 Election Analysis Archive

ELECTION 2024 DASHBOARD As of November 5, 8:03 AM EST Presidential election: Polls assessing Democratic Vice President Kamala D. Harris and former Republican President Donald J. Trump are divided into those which do (weight: “number polls/3”; n=87) and do not (weight: “number of polls”; n=288) include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. When given the option, I … Continue reading 2024 Election Analysis Archive →