On November 5, 2024, Republican Donald Trump was reelected president of the United States, with J.D. Vance elected to the vice presidency. Trump is only the second president – after Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892 – to lose reelection then win again four years later. Trump also became the first Republican presidential nominee to win … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition
Category: Presidential elections
2024 Election Analysis Archive
ELECTION 2024 DASHBOARD As of November 5, 8:03 AM EST Presidential election: Polls assessing Democratic Vice President Kamala D. Harris and former Republican President Donald J. Trump are divided into those which do (weight: “number polls/3”; n=87) and do not (weight: “number of polls”; n=288) include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. When given the option, I … Continue reading 2024 Election Analysis Archive
A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election
Our first look at the 2024 elections ends with the biggest prize of all: the presidency of the United States. Following big wins by Republican former president Donald J. Trump in the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, it is reasonable to assume a rematch of 2020, except now Democrat Joseph R. Biden, Jr. is … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election
2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables
I first observed an arithmetic Republican lean in Emerson College (“Emerson”) polling in November 2019. Specifically, Emerson College polling of hypothetical 2020 matchups between leading Democrats (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren) and President Donald J. Trump had shifted 4.7 percentage points (“points”) Republican since September 1, using the Democratic percentage minus the Republican percentage … Continue reading 2022 Emerson College polling: A story in three tables
Walter Mondale, Perry Mason and George Floyd
This is how I conclude the opening section of Chapter 1 of Interrogating Memory: Film Noir Spurs a Deep Dive Into My Family History…and My Own (publication TBD): I also learned that by 1920, Pennsylvania was the 2nd most common American state for the last name “Berger” (14%), behind only New York (23%),[i] which meant … Continue reading Walter Mondale, Perry Mason and George Floyd
The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
On November 3, 2020, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected president and vice president, respectively, of the United States. According to data from Dave Leip’s essential Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, the Biden-Harris ticket won 51.3% of the nearly 158.6 million votes cast. Turnout shattered the previous record of 137.1 million votes cast … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
2020 Elections Post-Mortem
On November 3, 2020, the United States ended a weeks-long electoral process. At stake was the presidency, control of the United States Senate (“Senate”) and House of Representatives (“House”), 11 governor’s mansions, and thousands of state and local offices. That day, I published “cheat sheets” to guide election viewers through state-level presidential returns, 35 Senate … Continue reading 2020 Elections Post-Mortem
Your 2020 Election Cheat Sheets
Election Day 2020 has finally arrived. More accurately, the end of election season comes today, as over 100 million Americans have already voted. To help guide you through the coming hours of media coverage, I have attached two PDFs. The first one allows you to track the results of the presidential election. For my last … Continue reading Your 2020 Election Cheat Sheets
Quinnipiac University and Emerson College: Mirror-image pollsters?
In three earlier posts—most recently here—I analyzed all polls conducted by Emerson College (“Emerson”) of 2020 presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial elections. I found that they had a clear bias towards the Republican candidate, on average, compared to all other polls of the same election. As I continue to analyze polls of the presidential election between … Continue reading Quinnipiac University and Emerson College: Mirror-image pollsters?
Biden is now the clear favorite to win the 2020 presidential election
On November 3, 2020, a weeks-long presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will end. As I write this, more than 23 million Americans—including yours truly—have already cast their ballots. This number is just over 1/6 of total votes cast in 2016. Following … Continue reading Biden is now the clear favorite to win the 2020 presidential election
Just Bear With Me... 