UPDATE: State of play in the 2018 Senate elections

Just as FiveThirtyEight.com released its Senate forecast, I update this post on the outlook for Democrats in the 36 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) this November 6 (and beyond, in the Mississippi special election). Feel free to compare and contrast the two. To be more precise, I am updating the tables and a … Continue reading UPDATE: State of play in the 2018 Senate elections

2018 U.S. Senate elections: the state of play after Labor Day

I have written in broad terms (here and here) about the 36 United States Senate (“Senate”) races which will determine whether Democrats or Republicans control the Senate after the November 2018 midterm elections[1]. Including Independent Senators Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Democrats control 49 seats; Republicans hold the remaining 51 seats … Continue reading 2018 U.S. Senate elections: the state of play after Labor Day

A Supreme opportunity to overcome partisan rancor

During my senior year at Yale, I took a seminar called “Political Uses of History.” The topic of my final paper (accounting for most of the course grade[1]) was the history lessons used to defend/critique the nomination of U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (DC Appeals Court) Judge Robert Bork to … Continue reading A Supreme opportunity to overcome partisan rancor

Bipartisanship as patriotism

I started quietly screaming here. But my deep revulsion for what the United States government, my government, the government elegantly outlined in our founding documents, is doing along our southern border (not the northern border with majority-northern-European Canada, mind you) boiled over the other night in this (annotated) 1,000+-word reply to a similar cri de coeur on … Continue reading Bipartisanship as patriotism

Manifest(o) Identity

Having written and thought a lot about the 2018 United States (US) midterm elections, the first things I read each day (after my e-mail) are Taegan Goddard’s invaluable Political Wire and, of course, FiveThirtyEight. On May 19, 2018, Goddard linked to this commentary by Washington Post columnist Paul Waldman. Waldman argues Democrats should abandon the … Continue reading Manifest(o) Identity

An update on projected 2018 Democratic U. S. House seat gains

UPDATED Midnight EST, November 20, 2018. As of this writing, Democrats have netted 38 seats in the United States House of Representatives, with three races still to be called. Democrat Ben McAdams narrowly leads incumbent Republican Mia Love in Utah's 4th Congressional District (CD), while Democrats trail narrowly in California's 21st and Georgia's 7th CD. … Continue reading An update on projected 2018 Democratic U. S. House seat gains

Projected 2018 Democratic U.S. House seat gains

This piece (only available to subscribers) appeared earlier today on Taegan Goddard’s absolutely essential Political Wire. A new Brennan Center report says “extreme gerrymandering” could cost Democrats control of the House unless they ride a massive blue wave. Because of maps designed to favor Republicans, Democrats would need to win by a nearly unprecedented nationwide margin in … Continue reading Projected 2018 Democratic U.S. House seat gains

A less-wicked-early look at the 2018 U.S. Senate Elections

In this May 2017 post, I took a “wicked early” look at the 2018 U.S. Senate (Senate) races. Depending on whether Democrat Doug Jones or Republican Roy Moore wins the December 12 special Senate election in Alabama, Republicans will control 51 or 52 Senate seats heading into the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats (46 or 47 … Continue reading A less-wicked-early look at the 2018 U.S. Senate Elections

Positively pondering pesky probabilities, perchance

One inspiration to start this “data-driven storytelling” blog was the pioneering work of Nate Silver and his fellow data journalists at FiveThirtyEight.com; their analyses are an essential “critical thinking” reality check to my own conclusions and perceptions. Indeed, when I finally get around to designing and teaching my course on critical thinking (along with my … Continue reading Positively pondering pesky probabilities, perchance

Where do rank-and-file Democrats (and Independents) stand on issues right now?

In the wake of Democratic underperformance in the 2016 elections (losing the Electoral College, insufficient gains to win back the United States House of Representatives [House] or United States Senate [Senate], net loss of two governorships, hemorrhaging state legislative seats), various “autopsies” were released. Some autopsies reached conclusions that contradicted the finding of other autopsies … Continue reading Where do rank-and-file Democrats (and Independents) stand on issues right now?