First thoughts on the Senate vote NOT to repeal the ACA

At 1:29 am EST on July 28, 2017, the last of three closely-watched Republican United States Senators (Senators) announced their votes on the “skinny repeal” bill, a bill intended to partially repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (aka ACA, aka Obamacare). According to Anna Maria Barry-Jester of the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com, the … Continue reading First thoughts on the Senate vote NOT to repeal the ACA

July 2017 Odds and Ends

My wife tells me that she gets annoyed when blogs she follows take too much time between posts. For mostly travel-related reasons, I have not been able to post a full article since July 6, and I will not be able to do so again for another week at least. Since my preference is never … Continue reading July 2017 Odds and Ends

Jon Ossoff, Ed Markey, and the (near-)future of the Democratic Party

The runoff special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District (CD) is June 20, 2017. Democrat Jon Ossoff won the first round of voting on April 19, 2017, but with only 48.1% of the vote. Rather than have separate party primaries, all candidates in Georgia run in a single “jungle primary.” If nobody receives more than … Continue reading Jon Ossoff, Ed Markey, and the (near-)future of the Democratic Party

Democrats’ current generic ballot advantage is JUST enough to recapture the House in 2018

On June 5, 2017, the data journalism website fivethirtyeight.com introduced its new yardstick to assess which political party is winning the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives (House) after the 2018 midterm elections. This tool is a weighted average of “generic ballot polls,” polls that ask respondents some variant of the question “If the … Continue reading Democrats’ current generic ballot advantage is JUST enough to recapture the House in 2018

Democrats need to capitalize on gubernatorial election opportunities in 2017 and 2018

Having previously analyzed Democratic prospects in the 2018 midterm elections for U.S. House (House; here and here) and Senate (Senate; here), I now examine what I think are the most important elections for both parties in 2017 and 2018—those for governor. In an age of increasing partisan polarization and Congressional gridlock, governors have emerged as … Continue reading Democrats need to capitalize on gubernatorial election opportunities in 2017 and 2018

A wicked early look at the 2018 U.S. Senate Elections

In two previous posts (here and here), I obliquely assessed the Democrats’ prospects for recapturing the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018. I will now do the same for the U.S. Senate (Senate), which Republicans now control 52-48 (including two Independents who caucus with the Democrats). ********* Just bear with me while I review some … Continue reading A wicked early look at the 2018 U.S. Senate Elections

The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018

Alaska and Hawaii became the 49th and 50th states, respectively, in 1959. As a result, 1962 was the first election year to reflect the current U.S. House of Representatives (House) configuration of 435 seats allocated across 50 states[1]. These were also the first House elections since John F. Kennedy won the presidency two years earlier. … Continue reading The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018