Assessing polling accuracy in 2024

The primary inspiration for this website was FiveThirtyEight.com. When I started to collect and analyze election polling data in earnest early in 2018, I followed its lead by developing my own polling aggregation: WAPA (weighted-adjusted polling average). I adjusted/weighted polls for recency, pollster quality, partisan lean, whether only adults were queried and whether percentages summed … Continue reading Assessing polling accuracy in 2024 →

A Wicked Early Look at the 2025 and 2026 Gubernatorial Elections

It is time to take a wicked early look at the 36 American gubernatorial elections scheduled to end on November 3, 2026, plus the two scheduled to end on November 4, 2025. Republicans currently have the edge in governors, 27- 23. If Democrats net win three of these 38 gubernatorial elections, they will hold a … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2025 and 2026 Gubernatorial Elections →

A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections

It is time to take a wicked early look at the 35 elections for the United States Senate (“Senate”) scheduled to end on November 3, 2026. Republicans are defending a 53-45-2 majority, although two Independents – Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont – vote with Democrats to organize the Senate. If Democrats … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look at the 2026 US Senate Elections →

The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition

On November 5, 2024, Republican Donald Trump was reelected president of the United States, with J.D. Vance elected to the vice presidency. Trump is only the second president – after Democrat Grover Cleveland in 1892 – to lose reelection then win again four years later. Trump also became the first Republican presidential nominee to win … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S Elections, 2025 edition →

2024 Election Analysis Archive

ELECTION 2024 DASHBOARD As of November 5, 8:03 AM EST Presidential election: Polls assessing Democratic Vice President Kamala D. Harris and former Republican President Donald J. Trump are divided into those which do (weight: “number polls/3”; n=87) and do not (weight: “number of polls”; n=288) include Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. When given the option, I … Continue reading 2024 Election Analysis Archive →

Assessing Kamala Harris’ running mate choices

On the evening of July 22, 2024, Vice President Kamala D. Harris secured enough endorsements from delegates to the Democratic National Convention to become the de facto 2024 Democratic presidential nominee. Three days later, Harris announced she would choose a vice-presidential running mate by August 7. During the early summers of 2016 and 2020, I … Continue reading Assessing Kamala Harris’ running mate choices →

A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election

Our first look at the 2024 elections ends with the biggest prize of all: the presidency of the United States. Following big wins by Republican former president Donald J. Trump in the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire Primary, it is reasonable to assume a rematch of 2020, except now Democrat Joseph R. Biden, Jr. is … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 Presidential Election →

A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections

We turn now to the 11 gubernatorial elections scheduled for 2024. Currently, there are 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors; Democrats have not held a majority of governor’s mansions since 2010. As with my recent preview of the 2024 Senate elections, this “somewhat wicked early” look is based almost entirely on “fundamentals,” or what … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 U.S. Gubernatorial Elections →

Will Democrats recapture the House in 2024?

In my last essay, I took a (somewhat) wicked early look at the 34 United States Senate elections scheduled for 2024. I now turn to the 435 elections for the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2024. Specifically, I assess the probability Democrats gain the minimum five seats they need to regain the House … Continue reading Will Democrats recapture the House in 2024? →

A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 US Senate Elections

I am a bit late to the party this year. Normally, I publish “wicked early looks” at elections for United States Senate (“Senate”), governor, United States House of Representatives (“House”) and – in years divisible by four – president, in the spring of the preceding year. For various reasons, however, including developing a YouTube channel … Continue reading A Somewhat Wicked Early Look at the 2024 US Senate Elections →