In a recent post, I assessed it was fairly likely Republicans regain control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2022. In this post, I turn my attention to the two gubernatorial elections to be held in 2021 (New Jersey, Virginia) and the 36 gubernatorial elections to be held in 2022. My goal … Continue reading A Wicked Early Look At Governor’s Races in 2021 and 2022
Category: 2020 elections
How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?
[Eds. note: As of September 5, 2022, you may find updated House Democratic majority probabilities on the home page. Probabilities are calculated two ways: 1) using all generic ballot polls since January 1, 2021, 2) and using polls conducted since Labor Day 2022.] On March 31, 2021, nearly five months after Election Day 2020, Democrat … Continue reading How Likely Is Republican Control of the U.S. House In 2022?
The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
On November 3, 2020, Democrats Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected president and vice president, respectively, of the United States. According to data from Dave Leip’s essential Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, the Biden-Harris ticket won 51.3% of the nearly 158.6 million votes cast. Turnout shattered the previous record of 137.1 million votes cast … Continue reading The Not-So-Changing Geography of U.S. Elections
2020 Elections Post-Mortem
On November 3, 2020, the United States ended a weeks-long electoral process. At stake was the presidency, control of the United States Senate (“Senate”) and House of Representatives (“House”), 11 governor’s mansions, and thousands of state and local offices. That day, I published “cheat sheets” to guide election viewers through state-level presidential returns, 35 Senate … Continue reading 2020 Elections Post-Mortem
Your 2020 Election Cheat Sheets
Election Day 2020 has finally arrived. More accurately, the end of election season comes today, as over 100 million Americans have already voted. To help guide you through the coming hours of media coverage, I have attached two PDFs. The first one allows you to track the results of the presidential election. For my last … Continue reading Your 2020 Election Cheat Sheets
Quinnipiac University and Emerson College: Mirror-image pollsters?
In three earlier posts—most recently here—I analyzed all polls conducted by Emerson College (“Emerson”) of 2020 presidential, senatorial and gubernatorial elections. I found that they had a clear bias towards the Republican candidate, on average, compared to all other polls of the same election. As I continue to analyze polls of the presidential election between … Continue reading Quinnipiac University and Emerson College: Mirror-image pollsters?
October 2020 update: Democratic control of the Senate looks increasingly likely
Democrats are poised to do extremely well when voting concludes on November 3, 2020—just 16 days from now; as I write this, more than 26.5 million votes have already been cast, which is 19% of the total 2016 turnout. They are a near-lock to continue to have a majority of members of the United States … Continue reading October 2020 update: Democratic control of the Senate looks increasingly likely
Biden is now the clear favorite to win the 2020 presidential election
On November 3, 2020, a weeks-long presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will end. As I write this, more than 23 million Americans—including yours truly—have already cast their ballots. This number is just over 1/6 of total votes cast in 2016. Following … Continue reading Biden is now the clear favorite to win the 2020 presidential election
As the 2020 presidential debates begin, Biden maintains a solid lead
On November 3, 2020, a weeks-long presidential election between incumbent Republican Donald J. Trump and his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr., will end. In fact, as I write this, more than 1 million Americans have already cast their ballots. With the first presidential debate scheduled to begin at 9 pm EST … Continue reading As the 2020 presidential debates begin, Biden maintains a solid lead
2020 Senate and Gubernatorial Elections: The View from Labor Day
Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez should be very pleased with his performance. Since winning the chairperson position in February 2017, he has overseen a net gain of eight gubernatorial elections and hundreds of state legislative seats, as well as winning back control of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) in 2018—flipping a historic … Continue reading 2020 Senate and Gubernatorial Elections: The View from Labor Day
Just Bear With Me... 