The 2016 U.S. presidential election viewed through one statistic

The 2016 United States (U.S.) presidential election is one of those elections (1948, 1960, 1968 and 2000 also come to mind) people will be re-hashing as long as the U.S. continues to HAVE presidential elections. I have already shared data-driven thoughts on the 2016 U.S. presidential election here, here, here, here, here and here. Grounding … Continue reading The 2016 U.S. presidential election viewed through one statistic →

Positively pondering pesky probabilities, perchance

One inspiration to start this “data-driven storytelling” blog was the pioneering work of Nate Silver and his fellow data journalists at FiveThirtyEight.com; their analyses are an essential “critical thinking” reality check to my own conclusions and perceptions. Indeed, when I finally get around to designing and teaching my course on critical thinking (along with my … Continue reading Positively pondering pesky probabilities, perchance →

Where do rank-and-file Democrats (and Independents) stand on issues right now?

In the wake of Democratic underperformance in the 2016 elections (losing the Electoral College, insufficient gains to win back the United States House of Representatives [House] or United States Senate [Senate], net loss of two governorships, hemorrhaging state legislative seats), various “autopsies” were released. Some autopsies reached conclusions that contradicted the finding of other autopsies … Continue reading Where do rank-and-file Democrats (and Independents) stand on issues right now? →

Clinton Derangement, or The Birth of a Notion

During the 2016 campaign, I was struck by two overlapping narratives. One was the intensity of animus toward Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, particularly among Republicans. This felt to me less like policy disagreement and more like personal vendetta. This animus expressed itself manufactured outrage (and HOURS of Congressional hearings) over the Islamist militant attack … Continue reading Clinton Derangement, or The Birth of a Notion →

The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018

Alaska and Hawaii became the 49th and 50th states, respectively, in 1959. As a result, 1962 was the first election year to reflect the current U.S. House of Representatives (House) configuration of 435 seats allocated across 50 states[1]. These were also the first House elections since John F. Kennedy won the presidency two years earlier. … Continue reading The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018 →

Gerrymandering is a bigger problem for democracy than for Democrats

It is an article of faith among Democrats and some political commentators that a major barrier to Democrats retaking control of the House of Representative in 2018, or even in 2020, is Republican gerrymandering following the 2010 U.S. Census. Republicans, the narrative goes, used the governor’s mansions and state legislatures they controlled after the 2010 … Continue reading Gerrymandering is a bigger problem for democracy than for Democrats →

Degree or not degree? That is (still) the Democrats question.

Democrat Hillary Clinton, despite winning a 2.1 percentage popular vote margin over Republican Donald Trump, lost the presidency in 2016 because she lost the combined 46 electoral votes (EV) from three states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Clinton lost these states by a combined 77,744 votes, and an average of 0.57 percentage points, based on data … Continue reading Degree or not degree? That is (still) the Democrats question. →

Should Democrats look to the southeast and southwest?

In a previous post, I implied that Hillary Clinton’s 2016 losses in five states won by Barack Obama in 2012--Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa—resulted from white voters without a college degree (14 percentage points less Democratic in 2016 than in 2012) averaging 44.4% of these states’ electorates, while white voters with a college degree … Continue reading Should Democrats look to the southeast and southwest? →

A closer look at Hillary Clinton’s performance in five key states

In a previous post, I proposed a “three-election weighted relative Democratic margin” (3W-RDM) for each state and the District of Columbia (DC). The “RDM” is the arithmetic difference between each state’s voting margin (% Democratic - % Republican[1]) and the national margin in a given presidential election. I calculated every state’s average RDM over successive … Continue reading A closer look at Hillary Clinton’s performance in five key states →

The Democrats’ 2016 “blue wall” thesis

There was a great deal of talk during the 2016 presidential campaign about Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall” in the Electoral College, with “blue” the color news organizations use to denote states won by Democrats. The basis of this talk was simple. In general, states tend to vote similarly for president over time; the … Continue reading The Democrats’ 2016 “blue wall” thesis →