[Eds. note: This post was updated at 4 pm EST on February 3, 2020 to reflect on final Iowa Caucuses poll.] At 7 PM Iowa time (8 pm EST) on February 3, 2020, Iowans will gather in nearly 1,700 precinct-level meeting places to support their preferred candidate to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee. They … Continue reading The 2020 Democratic Iowa Caucuses: Final Update
All The Essays
January 2020 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
As of January 14, 2020—and the seventh Democratic presidential nomination debate in Des Moines, Iowa—there are only… 20 days until the Iowa Caucuses, 28 days until the New Hampshire Primary, 39 days until the Nevada Caucuses, 46 days until the South Carolina Primary, and 49 days until 10 states vote on “Super Tuesday,”[1] including California, … Continue reading January 2020 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Rituals and obsessions: a brief personal history
It started with “Taxman” by The Beatles. Its distorted vocal opening had gotten stuck in my head despite my stated antipathy toward the band—really more pose than position, in retrospect. Whenever I run a bath, I like to be in the tub while the faucet(s) run. Until quite recently,[1] when the tub was nearly full, … Continue reading Rituals and obsessions: a brief personal history
Stranger Things…about me?
Let us start with the easy one. ********** But first, if you have not watched—and still plan to watch—all 25 episodes of the gobsmackingly-excellent Stranger Things, then I strongly advise you not to read further until after you have done so. ********** In Episode 2 of Season 2, “Trick or Treat, Freak”, Nancy Wheeler (Natalia … Continue reading Stranger Things…about me?
December 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
With the sixth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for December 19, 2019 in Los Angeles, California, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-15 declared candidates. Since the previous update, four candidates exited the race: Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam on November 20, former United States House of Representatives Member (“Representative”) … Continue reading December 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
A Surrealist Epic Post-Thanksgiving Poem
Since we first started hosting Thanksgiving dinner in, I believe, 2012, I have been responsible for the epic cleanup. As with all good rituals, it started as a one-off: I put Nell and the girls to bed and said good night to the last of our guests to leave with the understanding I would finish … Continue reading A Surrealist Epic Post-Thanksgiving Poem
Emerson College polls: Post, and ye shall receive
Five days ago, I wrote about the sharp Republican shift since September 1, 2019 in polls conducted by Emerson College of hypothetical 2020 presidential election matchups between President Donald J. Trump and possible Democratic nominees. Emerson College is a high-quality pollster, rated A- and showing no partisan skew in recent elections according to FiveThirtyEight.com’s pollster … Continue reading Emerson College polls: Post, and ye shall receive
About those recent Emerson College polls…
I first wrote about Emerson College polls here, using the fact their polls of hypothetical 2020 matchups between a Democrat and President Donald J. Trump force respondents to choose a candidate (i.e., have 0% “other/undecided”) to assess Harris X polls, which often have very high proportions “other/undecided.” At the time, I concluded “other/undecided” Harris X … Continue reading About those recent Emerson College polls…
November 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
With the fifth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for November 20, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-18 (19?) declared candidates. Since the previous update, United States House of Representatives Member (“Representative”) Tim Ryan of Ohio exited the race on October 24, followed by former Texas … Continue reading November 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Just under one year until the 2020 presidential election…how does it look for Democrats?
On November 3, 2020, one year from this past Sunday, the United States will hold its next presidential election; technically, the election will conclude that day, given early voting and vote-by-mail opportunities in many states. Once a month since April 2019, I have updated analyses of polling data on hypothetical match-ups between potential candidates for … Continue reading Just under one year until the 2020 presidential election…how does it look for Democrats?
Just Bear With Me... 