On November 3, 2020, one year from this past Sunday, the United States will hold its next presidential election; technically, the election will conclude that day, given early voting and vote-by-mail opportunities in many states. Once a month since April 2019, I have updated analyses of polling data on hypothetical match-ups between potential candidates for … Continue reading Just under one year until the 2020 presidential election…how does it look for Democrats?
Category: Presidential elections
October 2019 update: 2020 Democratic nomination and general election polling
With the fourth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for October 15, 2019 in Westerville, Ohio, it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-19 declared candidates. The more-stringent criteria to qualify for this debate—despite the looming presence of twelve candidates on one stage—led to the announcement by New York City … Continue reading October 2019 update: 2020 Democratic nomination and general election polling
September 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination scenarios and general election polling
With the third Democratic presidential nomination debate set for September 12, 2019 in Houston, Texas, it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-20 declared candidates. The more stringent criteria to qualify for this debate—the first to be held on only one night—presaged the end for three more campaigns. Washington … Continue reading September 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination scenarios and general election polling
August 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
It has been just over two weeks since the second Democratic presidential nomination debates, so it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the 23 declared candidates remaining. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel ended his campaign on August 6, 2019, and it appears former Colorado John Hickenlooper will end his bid … Continue reading August 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
July 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
With the second Democratic presidential nomination debates scheduled for the evenings of Tuesday, July 30, 2019 and Wednesday, July 30, 2019, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the 25 declared candidates; because United States House of Representatives member (“Representative”) Eric Swalwell of California dropped out of the race on July 8, … Continue reading July 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
The first 2020 Democratic debates, or Why the Trump campaign should be nervous…
With the first Democratic presidential nomination debates scheduled for Wednesday, June 26, 2019 and Thursday, June 27, 2019, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the 25 declared candidates; former United States House of Representatives member (“Representative”) Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania declared his candidacy June 23, 2019). For details on how I … Continue reading The first 2020 Democratic debates, or Why the Trump campaign should be nervous…
June 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Here is the June 2019 photograph (Marshall Point Lighthouse) on my “Maine Lighthouses” Down East wall calendar. This photograph introduces my monthly update of this recent post, which addresses polling data for Democratic candidates for president in 2020. ********** I begin with the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, which I assess using my NSW-WAPA (national-and-state-weighted weighted-adjusted … Continue reading June 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
May 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
It has become a tradition that for my birthday my wife and daughters present me with a new Maine (usually lighthouse-themed) wall calendar from Down East. Last year was no exception; here is the May 2019 entry on my “Maine Lighthouses” calendar. I use this photograph to introduce what I anticipate to be a monthly … Continue reading May 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
A wicked early look at the 2020 U.S. presidential election
With the 2018 midterm elections behind us, and the field of Democrats seeking to challenge Republican President Donald Trump in 2020 taking shape, let us turn to the 2020 presidential elections, scheduled to take place (technically, to conclude) on November 3, 2020. Previously, I addressed the wicked early relative standings of the 44 Democrats listed … Continue reading A wicked early look at the 2020 U.S. presidential election
A wicked early look at the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination
On March 11, 2019, the Democratic Party announced that its 2020 national convention will be held at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, WI. This is a reasonable choice, given that Wisconsin—which 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton lost by 0.8 percentage points—is one of the true swing states in presidential elections. It also means the … Continue reading A wicked early look at the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination
Just Bear With Me... 