The primary inspiration for this website was FiveThirtyEight.com. When I started to collect and analyze election polling data in earnest early in 2018, I followed its lead by developing my own polling aggregation: WAPA (weighted-adjusted polling average). I adjusted/weighted polls for recency, pollster quality, partisan lean, whether only adults were queried and whether percentages summed … Continue reading Assessing polling accuracy in 2024
Category: Fox News
2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2)
A few days ago, I took our golden retriever Casper to a local park for a long run. It was late at night – or, rather, early in the morning – so we had the park virtually to ourselves. I used a Chuckit! to fling an oversized tennis ball against a high chain link fence … Continue reading 2022 Elections: A Post-Mortem (Part 2)
The 2021 Virginia governor’s race will be a nail-biter
The 2021 elections end later today, November 2. For background on the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia – including how I calculate polling averages - please see here and here. I made two minor adjustments since then: all polls with a field midpoint of October 1 or later are given a weight of … Continue reading The 2021 Virginia governor’s race will be a nail-biter
Just Bear With Me... 