Five days ago, I wrote about the sharp Republican shift since September 1, 2019 in polls conducted by Emerson College of hypothetical 2020 presidential election matchups between President Donald J. Trump and possible Democratic nominees. Emerson College is a high-quality pollster, rated A- and showing no partisan skew in recent elections according to FiveThirtyEight.com’s pollster … Continue reading Emerson College polls: Post, and ye shall receive
Category: 2020 elections
About those recent Emerson College polls…
I first wrote about Emerson College polls here, using the fact their polls of hypothetical 2020 matchups between a Democrat and President Donald J. Trump force respondents to choose a candidate (i.e., have 0% “other/undecided”) to assess Harris X polls, which often have very high proportions “other/undecided.” At the time, I concluded “other/undecided” Harris X … Continue reading About those recent Emerson College polls…
November 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
With the fifth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for November 20, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-18 (19?) declared candidates. Since the previous update, United States House of Representatives Member (“Representative”) Tim Ryan of Ohio exited the race on October 24, followed by former Texas … Continue reading November 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Just under one year until the 2020 presidential election…how does it look for Democrats?
On November 3, 2020, one year from this past Sunday, the United States will hold its next presidential election; technically, the election will conclude that day, given early voting and vote-by-mail opportunities in many states. Once a month since April 2019, I have updated analyses of polling data on hypothetical match-ups between potential candidates for … Continue reading Just under one year until the 2020 presidential election…how does it look for Democrats?
October 2019 update: 2020 Democratic nomination and general election polling
With the fourth Democratic presidential nomination debate set for October 15, 2019 in Westerville, Ohio, it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-19 declared candidates. The more-stringent criteria to qualify for this debate—despite the looming presence of twelve candidates on one stage—led to the announcement by New York City … Continue reading October 2019 update: 2020 Democratic nomination and general election polling
September 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination scenarios and general election polling
With the third Democratic presidential nomination debate set for September 12, 2019 in Houston, Texas, it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-20 declared candidates. The more stringent criteria to qualify for this debate—the first to be held on only one night—presaged the end for three more campaigns. Washington … Continue reading September 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination scenarios and general election polling
Looking in the mirror, 2020 Democratic nomination polls edition
Monthly since April 2019, I have updated my weighted-adjusted polling averages for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. You may read about my aggregation methods here, but a key difference between my algorithm and those used by some other polling aggregators (e.g. RealClearPolitics) is that I use every publicly-available poll (as listed on FiveThirtyEight.com) released since … Continue reading Looking in the mirror, 2020 Democratic nomination polls edition
August 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
It has been just over two weeks since the second Democratic presidential nomination debates, so it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the 23 declared candidates remaining. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel ended his campaign on August 6, 2019, and it appears former Colorado John Hickenlooper will end his bid … Continue reading August 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
July 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
With the second Democratic presidential nomination debates scheduled for the evenings of Tuesday, July 30, 2019 and Wednesday, July 30, 2019, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the 25 declared candidates; because United States House of Representatives member (“Representative”) Eric Swalwell of California dropped out of the race on July 8, … Continue reading July 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Road trips and the fine art of tipping (Epilogue)
Following the election of Republican Donald J. Trump as president of the United States in 2016, I immediately began to donate small sums to a wide variety of organizations and political candidates. And as the race to the be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee began to take shape, I began making $10 donations to my … Continue reading Road trips and the fine art of tipping (Epilogue)
Just Bear With Me... 