Querying the impossible, just for fun

As I research and write this book, I am taking a deep dive into all manner of personal documents, family books and photographs. So many photographs… Here is a photograph I rediscovered that shows my father holding me in his right arm while cupping the chin of my older sister Mindy with his left hand. … Continue reading Querying the impossible, just for fun

Making personal connections, 60 years later

When I launched this blog last December, I intended it to be a place to disseminate all of the quantitative data analyses I was conducting for my own amusement. Such a repository, I theorized, would force me to write up the results of these analyses into short articles. Short, at least, by peer-reviewed journal standards. … Continue reading Making personal connections, 60 years later

Where do rank-and-file Democrats (and Independents) stand on issues right now?

In the wake of Democratic underperformance in the 2016 elections (losing the Electoral College, insufficient gains to win back the United States House of Representatives [House] or United States Senate [Senate], net loss of two governorships, hemorrhaging state legislative seats), various “autopsies” were released. Some autopsies reached conclusions that contradicted the finding of other autopsies … Continue reading Where do rank-and-file Democrats (and Independents) stand on issues right now?

First thoughts on the Senate vote NOT to repeal the ACA

At 1:29 am EST on July 28, 2017, the last of three closely-watched Republican United States Senators (Senators) announced their votes on the “skinny repeal” bill, a bill intended to partially repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (aka ACA, aka Obamacare). According to Anna Maria Barry-Jester of the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com, the … Continue reading First thoughts on the Senate vote NOT to repeal the ACA

July 2017 Odds and Ends

My wife tells me that she gets annoyed when blogs she follows take too much time between posts. For mostly travel-related reasons, I have not been able to post a full article since July 6, and I will not be able to do so again for another week at least. Since my preference is never … Continue reading July 2017 Odds and Ends

Writers Write, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Career Changes

What I can’t remember is whether my first exhortation to join the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) arrived in the mail before—or after—my 50th birthday in September 2016. What I do remember (because they are still neatly piled next to the printer, just a few inches to the left of my computer screen as … Continue reading Writers Write, or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Career Changes

Clinton Derangement, or The Birth of a Notion

During the 2016 campaign, I was struck by two overlapping narratives. One was the intensity of animus toward Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, particularly among Republicans. This felt to me less like policy disagreement and more like personal vendetta. This animus expressed itself manufactured outrage (and HOURS of Congressional hearings) over the Islamist militant attack … Continue reading Clinton Derangement, or The Birth of a Notion

We are not our resumes. Nor should we be.

When I enrolled at Yale University in September 1984, I was undecided between majoring in mathematics or political science. That decision was made much easier by my less-than-stellar performance in Math 230, then a required freshman math course. Beyond the objective difficult of the class, there are other reasons why I did not do as … Continue reading We are not our resumes. Nor should we be.

Using Jon Ossoff polling data to make a point about statistical significance testing

I do not like the phrase “statistical dead heat,” nor do I like the phrase “statistical tie.” These phrases oversimplify the level of uncertainty accruing to any value (e.g., polling percentage or margin) estimated from a sample of a larger population of interest, such as the universe of election-day voters; when you sample, you are … Continue reading Using Jon Ossoff polling data to make a point about statistical significance testing