It is time to take a wicked early look at the 36 American gubernatorial elections scheduled to end on November 3, 2026, plus the two scheduled to end on November 4, 2025. Republicans currently have the edge in governors, 27- 23. If Democrats net win three of these 38 gubernatorial elections, they will hold a majority for the first time since 2010. At this early stage, based almost entirely on the fundamentals, this is a distinct possibility. Election data, as usual, come from Dave Leip’s invaluable website.
“Fundamentals” are the sum of state partisan lean, estimated incumbency advantage and national partisan lean. This sum is a baseline estimate for how a generic Democrat would fare against a generic Republican, all else being equal. To learn how I calculate these values, please see my wicked early look at the 2026 United States Senate (“Senate”) elections.
Incumbent Democratic governors had a 7.1-percentage-point (“point”) advantage over the last six elections, incumbent Republican governors had a 9.3-point advantage, and Democratic gubernatorial nominees had a remarkable 5.6-point advantage in open seats. To estimate national partisan lean, I add the current average in generic ballot polls (D+3.7, as of early October 2025[1]) and the difference between the Democratic margin[2] in all votes cast for United States House of Representatives (“House”) and governor in the last six elections (midterm elections in bold):
Table 1: Democratic margin in all votes case for House and Governor, 2014-24
| Year | House Margin | Governor Margin | Difference |
| 2024 | D-2.7 | D-3.9 | -1.2 |
| 2022 | D-2.8 | D+0.3 | 3.1 |
| 2020 | D+3.1 | D-8.3 | -11.4 |
| 2018 | D+8.6 | D+3.1 | -5.5 |
| 2016 | D-1.0 | D-2.0 | -1.0 |
| 2014 | D-5.8 | D-3.9 | 1.9 |
Table 1 shows that, on average, the Democratic gubernatorial margin was 2.4 points lower than the House Democratic margin over the last six elections: three presidential election years and three midterm election years (like 2026). In the last three midterm elections, the difference was -0.2 (including -5.5 during Republican President Donald Trump’s first midterm elections in 2018). Wanting to capture at least some information from the most recent gubernatorial elections, I calculated a weighted-average[3] difference of -0.9.[4] At this point in the cycle then, I project Democrats will win all votes for governor in 2026 by 2.8 points.
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We begin with the two gubernatorial elections in 2025. In New Jersey, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy is retiring after two terms. Running to replace him are Democratic House Member Mikie Sherrill and former Republican State Assemblymen Jack Ciattarelli, who narrowly lost to Murphy in 2021. Combining the Democratic partisan lean of New Jersey (D+9.5) with the Democratic environment and edge in open seats, the fundamentals suggest Sherrill should win by 17.9 points. However, neither party has held the governor’s mansion for more than eight consecutive years since 1961, which gives Ciattarelli a historic advantage. This may be why Sherrill “only” leads in recent polling by four or five points. I thus categorize this election as Tilts Democratic.
[Eds note: Sherrill won handily, 56.3% to 43.2% – roughly midway between the fundamentals and the final polling margin of 49.2% to 43.9%.]
In Virginia, meanwhile, first-term Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is barred from seeking reelection. The fundamentals (state partisan lean = D+6.0) suggest Democratic House Member Abigail Spanberger should defeat Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earl-Sears by 14.4 points. While that may be a stretch, current polling (D+7.7) has Spanberger approaching a double-digit victory. Call this Safe Democratic, netting Democrats one governor’s mansion going into 2026.
[Eds note: Spanberger won handily, 57.2% to 42.6% – almost exactly the fundamentals margin and much better than the final polling margin of 51.7% to 42.9%.]
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Table 2 below summarizes the fundamentals for the 18 governor’s mansions Democrats will defend in 2026.
[Eds. note: Table updated November 9, 2025 after recalculating probability Dem wins: normal distribution with a mean difference between fundamentals and final margin of 0.3 and a standard deviation of 19.4, across the 244 most recent gubernatorial elections.]
Table 2: 2026 Gubernatorial elections – 18 Democratic-held governor’s mansions:
| Current Governor | State | Run 2026? | 3W-RDM | Incumbency | GenBal | Total | Last margin | First elected | P Dem wins |
| Wes Moore | MD | Yes | 28.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 38.3 | 32.4% | 2022 | 97.5% |
| Maura Healey | MA | Yes | 27.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 36.9 | 29.2% | 2022 | 97.1% |
| Josh Green | HI | Yes | 25.6 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 35.3 | 26.3% | 2022 | 96.5% |
| Gavin Newsom | CA | No | 23.7 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 31.9 | — | N/A | 94.9% |
| Kathy Hochul | NY | Yes | 16.6 | -14.1 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 6.4% | Appt 2021 | 59.7% |
| Daniel McKee | RI | Yes | 15.3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 20.1 | 19.1% | Appt 2021 | 84.6% |
| Ned Lamont | CT | Yes? | 15.1 | -1.2 | 2.6 | 16.5 | 12.0% | 2018 | 79.8% |
| Tina Kotek | OR | Yes | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 22.9 | 3.4% | 2022 | 87.8% |
| J.B. Pritzker | IL | Yes | 12.8 | -1.0 | 2.6 | 14.4 | 12.5% | 2018 | 76.6% |
| Jared Polis | CO | No | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 17.9 | — | N/A | 81.8% |
| Michelle Lujan Grisham | NM | No | 6.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 15.1 | — | N/A | 77.7% |
| Janet Mills | ME | No | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 14.1 | — | N/A | 76.1% |
| Tim Walz | MN | Yes | 3.6 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 11.8 | 7.7% | 2018 | 72.3% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | MI | No | -0.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 7.3 | — | N/A | 64.0% |
| Tony Evers | WI | No | -1.4 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 6.8 | — | N/A | 63.1% |
| Josh Shapiro | PA | Yes? | -1.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 8.0 | 14.8% | 2022 | 65.4% |
| Katie Hobbs | AZ | Yes | -4.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 0.7% | 2022 | 60.3% |
| Laura Kelly | KS | No | -17.4 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -9.2 | — | N/A | 31.1% |
Democrats start the cycle at least a 3-1 favorite to win 11 of these elections, likely reelecting incumbents in Connecticut (if Ned Lamont seeks a third term), Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Oregon and Rhode Island, while holding governor’s mansions in three states where a Democratic governor is retiring. In California, where all candidates run in a single “jungle primary” ending June 2, 2026, Democratic House Member Katie Porter has an early edge over Republican consultant Steve Hilton. Democratic Senator Michael Bennet is the likely next governor of Colorado, though he faces a primary challenge from state Attorney General Phil Weiser. Former Democratic Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland is likely the next governor – and third woman of color in a row to hold the office – of New Mexico. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, finally, the Democratic nominee for vice president, starts as roughly a 5-2 favorite to win a third term.
While Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin tilt slightly Republican at the presidential level, they mostly elect Democrats at the state level. Assuming he runs, Democrat Josh Shapiro is about a 2-1 favorite to win reelection in Pennsylvania, likely against state Treasure Stacy Garrity. In Michigan, where Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is likely to defeat Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist for the Democratic nomination, while House Member John James – who has lost statewide twice before – has the early edge over former state Attorney General Mike Cox and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt for the GOP nomination. Making this race more unpredictable is Independent Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. The former Democrat could siphon enough votes from the Democratic nominee to allow a Republican victory. This election starts Tilts Democratic. And in Wisconsin, where Tony Evers is stepping down after two terms, there is no clear leader for the Democrats – though Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley likely have the most name recognition. Perhaps everyone is waiting for former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes – who narrowly lost the 2022 Senate election to Ron Johnson – to announce his plans. Republicans will likely nominate House Member Tom Tiffany. This election starts as Leans Democratic, though if Barnes runs, that changes to Likely Democratic.
Two incumbent female Democratic governors start the cycle as only modest favorites to win reelection. Katie Hobbs won by less than one point in 2022, and Arizona remains a moderately Republican state nationally. Her Republican opponent will be House Member Andy Biggs or former Arizona Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson. Early Republican-leaning polls show Hobbs narrowly ahead of both, albeit with about 15% undecided. Neither Biggs nor Robson have won statewide, while Hobbs has done so twice. This election thus starts Tilts Democratic.
New York has not elected a Republican governor since 2002, and it remains a strongly Democratic state at the presidential level (D+16.6). However, incumbent Kathy Hochul, who ascended to the job in August 2021 when Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned, won by only 6.3 points in her first reelection bid in 2022 – 14.1 points below expectation. This is why she is “only” a 3-1 favorite in such a heavily Democratic state. While she has not yet formally announced her bid, Hochul’s Republican opponent will be House Member Elise Stefanik. The fundamentals and partisan environment should make Hochul a lock, but instead it starts Tilts Democratic.
That leaves the one governor’s mansion Democrats are more likely than not to lose in 2026. Democrat Laura Kelly was elected governor of Kansas in 2018 thanks to a strong Democratic wave and the unpopularity of Republican Governor Sam Brownback. Kelly was reelected in 2022, but is term-limited in 2026. The election appears to be wide open on both sides of the aisle, with two Democratic state Senators – Ethan Corson and Cindy Holscher – vying to run against former Governor Jeff Colyer, State Senate President Ty Masterson, state Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt or state Secretary of State Scott Schwab. As good a year as Democrats are likely to have, this election starts Leans Republican.
Bottom line: On paper, at least, Democrats are very likely to hold 14 of the 19 governor’s mansions they are defending in 2025 and 2026 – 15 if Barnes runs in Wisconsin. Kansas is likely to flip Republican, while Democrats have slight edges in Arizona, Michigan and New Jersey. Thus, Democrats start the election season looking at between one and five losses, and more likely one or two.
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Turning to the Republicans, Table 3 below summarizes the fundamentals for the 18 governor’s mansions they will defend in 2026.
[Eds. note: Table updated November 9, 2025 after recalculating probability Dem wins: normal distribution with a mean difference between fundamentals and final margin of 0.3 and a standard deviation of 19.4, across the 244 most recent gubernatorial elections.]
Table 3: 2026 Gubernatorial elections – 18 Republican-held governor’s mansions:
| Current Governor | State | Run 2026? | 3W-RDM | Incumbency | GenBal | Total | Last margin | First elected | P Dem wins |
| Phil Scott | VT | Yes | 30.9 | -74.1 | 2.6 | -40.7 | 41.1% | 2016 | 1.7% |
| Kelly Ayotte | NH | Yes | 2.8 | -9.3 | 2.6 | -3.9 | 9.3% | 2024 | 41.4% |
| Joe Lombardo | NV | Yes | -1.5 | -9.3 | 2.6 | -8.2 | 1.5% | 2022 | 33.0% |
| Brian Kemp | GA | No | -3.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 5.2 | — | N/A | 59.9% |
| Ron DeSantis | FL | No | -8.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -0.7 | — | N/A | 47.8% |
| Mike DeWine | OH | No | -10.7 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -2.5 | — | N/A | 44.2% |
| Greg Abbott | TX | Yes | -11.3 | 0.2 | 2.6 | -8.5 | 10.8% | 2014 | 32.5% |
| Kim Reynolds | IA | No | -12.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -3.8 | — | N/A | 41.5% |
| Mike Dunleavy | AK | No | -13.5 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -5.3 | 10.8% | 2014 | 38.5% |
| Henry McMaster | SC | No | -16.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -8.1 | — | N/A | 33.1% |
| Jim Pillen | NE | Yes | -21.9 | -9.3 | 2.6 | -28.6 | 23.2% | 2022 | 6.8% |
| Bill Lee | TN | No | -28.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -19.8 | — | N/A | 14.9% |
| Kay Ivey | AL | No | -29.4 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -21.2 | — | N/A | 13.3% |
| Larry Rhoden | SD | Yes | -29.4 | -9.3 | 2.6 | -36.1 | — | Appt 2025 | 5.0% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | AR | Yes | -30.1 | -9.3 | 2.6 | -36.8 | 27.8% | 2022 | 2.8% |
| Brad Little | ID | Yes | -34.8 | -5.7 | 2.6 | -37.9 | 40.2% | 2018 | 2.4% |
| Kevin Stitt | OK | No | -35.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -27.1 | — | N/A | 7.8% |
| Mark Gordon | WY | No | -46.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | -37.8 | — | N/A | 2.4% |
As of now, Republicans are safe in nine of these elections (i.e. start the cycle at least 5-1 favorites), including open seats in Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming. Going in alphabetical order, the near-likely next (Republican) governors of the latter four states are Senator Tommy Tuberville, state Attorney General Gentner Drummond, Senator Marsha Blackburn and state Senator Eric Barlow (though several Republican state officials have yet to declare their intentions).
Democrats start the cycle roughly 2:1 underdogs to win the governor’s mansion in three states. Texas Governor Greg Abbott is running for a fourth term, and the Republican is currently heavily favored against several obscure Democrats. That said, if House Member Joaquin Castro or former House Member Beto O’Rourke – who has lost twice statewide – run, and if Republican turnout is dampened by a bruising Senate primary, and if voters decide they want a change from Abbott, this race could get more competitive. In South Carolina, any one of Republican Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette, state Attorney General Alan Wilson, or House Members Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman would be the heavy favorite to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Henry McMaster. First-term Republican Joe Lombardo narrowly defeated incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak in tilt-Republican Nevada in 2022, and he is likely to improve that margin against Democratic state Attorney General Aaron Ford next year. These three elections start as Likely Republican.
In Iowa, meanwhile, Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is stepping down after two terms. The likely Democratic nominee, state Auditor Rob Sand, starts the cylce highly competitive against one of three Republicans: State Representative Eddie Andrews, House Member Randy Feenstra and former State Representative Brad Sherman. And in Florida, the term-limiting of Republican Governor Ron DeSantis might be the tonic Democrats need to revive their fortunes in the Sunshine State, though the only declared Democrat – former Republican House Member David Jolly – might not be the right flavor, especially with Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava waiting in the wings. Either Democrat will likely face MAGA Republican House Member Byron Donalds and Democrat-turned-Independent former state Senate Minority Leader Jason Pizzo. Early polling shows a close race with a high percentage undecided, so, despite Democratic debacles in the last few election cycles, this election could be as competitive as in 2018. These two elections start as Tilts Republican.
That leaves four Republican-held governor’s mansions that are the most plausible for Democrats to win in 2026.
Despite its Republican history, Alaska is winnable for Democrats in 2026, especially if the state continues to become less Republican and ranked choice voting continues to benefit them. Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy is term-limited, opening the door for Democrat Tom Begich, former state Senate Minority Leader and brother of former Democratic Senator Mark Begich, to become the first Democratic governor of Alaska since 2003. Another strong candidate – if she does not run for the House or Senate – is former House Member Mary Peltola, who has won statewide twice since 2022 – and who only narrowly lost in 2024. Republican candidates include Lieutenant Governor Nancy Dahlstrom and businesswoman Bernadette Wilson. This election is Tilts Republican if Peltola does not run, and Tilts Democrat if she runs…making it a Toss-Up for now.
New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states to hold gubernatorial elections every two years. Republican Governor Phil Scott is safe in Vermont, but first-term Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte might be vulnerable in increasingly-Democratic New Hampshire (D+2.8). Ayotte has not yet announced her plans, but if she runs, she is a modest favorite to win reelection against Democratic businessman Jon Kiper or (if he runs) former state Senator Tom Sherman. However, former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski might challenge Ayotte for the Republican nomination. Lewandowski would be a heavy underdog in a general election, handing Democrats a governor’s mansion. The uncertainty in the candidate mix makes this a Toss-Up for now.
A Democrat has not been elected governor of Ohio since 2006 – and Ted Strickland was defeated four years later by John Kasich, an establishment Republican who later became an Independent. He was succeeded by another establishment Republican, Mike DeWine, who was the first governor to impose COVID-19-related restrictions, angering MAGA Republicans. Assisting him in that effort was a Democrat – state Department of Health Director Amy Acton. DeWine is term-limited, and Acton is the primary Democrat running to succeed him. Former Democratic House Member Tim Ryan, who narrowly lost a Senate race in 2022 to current Vice President J.D. Vance, is mulling a run. Ryan could be stronger in a general election, as Dr. Acton has never run for office before. Ohio Republicans are poised to nominate MAGA businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, whose only elective experience is a brief run for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. He also does not fit the mold of establishment Republican governors preferred by Ohio voters. Early polling notwithstanding, his nomination increases a generic Democrat’s win probability from an already-decent 32%. This election starts as a Toss-Up.
This leaves the one governor’s mansion Democrats start the cycle ever-so-slightly favored to flip in 2026: Georgia. Republican Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited, opening the door for Democrats in what is rapidly becoming a true swing state nationally. Georgia is one of only six states where Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won more votes in 2024 (74,384) than Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden did in 2020.[5] Democrats will nominate former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (most likely) or former State Senator Jason Estevez. Three statewide officials are vying for the Republican nomination: Attorney General Chris Carr, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones and Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger, who is most famous for a threatening phone call from a defeated Trump. If MAGA Republicans focus primarily on savaging Raffensberger, their primary could get very ugly, very quickly, effectively handing the election to Bottoms or Estevez. The presence of a high-profile Senate race will also boost Democratic turnout, making this election Tilts Democratic for now.
Bottom line: At this early stage, the only Republican-held governor’s mansion likely to change party hands in 2026 is in Georgia, though decisions by Ayotte (not to run) and Peltola (to run) would make Democrats favorites in New Hampshire and Alaska, respectively. Nominating Ramaswamy – even against a novice like Dr. Acton – puts Ohio solidly in play for Democrats. Beyond that, however, Democrats are unlikely to win elsewhere, barring a Democratic wave that puts open governor’s mansions in Florida and Iowa in play. Republicans thus start the election season likely to lose two to seven governor’s mansions, most likely two or three.
Overall outlook. As with Senate elections, there are three scenarios for the 38 Democratic gubernatorial nominees in 2026. The “right down the middle” scenario is that they trade a Democratic governor in Kansas for ones in Georgia and Virginia. Perhaps one or two other Democratic governor’s mansions flip Republican (Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin) or two or three Republican governor’s mansions flip Democratic (Alaska, New Hampshire, Ohio). This scenario is essentially a wash, leaving Democrats with 23-25 governors.
The “long dark night of the soul” scenario is that 2026 looks more like the last three presidential election years, signaled by Ciattarelli wining in New Jersey and Spanberger barely winning in Virginia. Democratic gubernatorial nominees lose nationwide by about four points. In this scenario, Democrats lose four to seven governor’s mansions, including seemingly safe ones in New York and Pennsylvania, while not flipping a single Republican governor’s mansion. For the first time in a decade, Democrats control fewer than 20 governor’s mansions.
The “a party can dream” scenario, finally, is that a post-Trump Republican split emerges early, Democrats vote while Republican stay home, and Democrats win every race currently no worse than Leans Republican. This election closely resembles 2006, when Democrats won gubernatorial elections by six points nationally. Democrats still lose in Kansas, though by low single digits, and fall just short in Nevada and South Carolina. Besides flipping Alaska, Georgia, Ohio and New Hampshire, though, a Democrat becomes governor of Florida for the first time since 1995 and governor of Iowa for the first time since 2011. Most importantly, Democrats finally slay their great white while, narrowly electing Castro governor of Texas and ending a 32-year run of Republican governors. In this scenario, Democrats net four to seven governorships, giving them their largest majority since 2009.
Splitting the difference, Democrats are looking at a range of -2 to 3 governor’s mansions gained, with a gain of one the most plausible. Thus, a bit more than a year from the elections, Democrats are well positioned to come a bit closer to parity in governors.
Until next time…and if you like what you read here, please consider making a donation. Thank you!
[1] Some variation of “If the election in your U.S. House district were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, a different candidate or are you not sure?” as calculated by RealClearPolitics, Ballotpedia, DecisionDeskHQ and RacefortheWH.
[2] Democratic percentage minus Republican percentage
[3] 2024=1, 2022=6, 2020=1, 2018=5, 2016=1, 2014=4
[4] Using only data from 2022, 2018 and 2014, the difference is +0.03, using a 3-2-1 weighting scheme.
[5] The other states where Harris received more votes that Biden are Wisconsin (37,363), North Carolina (31,083), Utah (2,284), Nevada (1,711) and Maine (580). In the other 44 states and DC, Harris averaged 142,537 fewer votes than Biden, led by California (-1,834,460), New York (-625,343), Florida (-614,007), Texas (-423,695) and Illinois (409,022).
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