With the third Democratic presidential nomination debate set for September 12, 2019 in Houston, Texas, it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the now-20 declared candidates. The more stringent criteria to qualify for this debate—the first to be held on only one night—presaged the end for three more campaigns. Washington … Continue reading September 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination scenarios and general election polling
Category: Politics
A post-Labor-Day look at 2019 elections for U.S. House and governor
In May, I took a “wicked early” look at, among other elections, the three gubernatorial elections to be held on November 5, 2019 in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi. I also updated my estimated effects of incumbency for Democratic and Republican United States Senators (“Senators”) and governors. Having passed Labor Day, the traditional start of the … Continue reading A post-Labor-Day look at 2019 elections for U.S. House and governor
Looking in the mirror, 2020 Democratic nomination polls edition
Monthly since April 2019, I have updated my weighted-adjusted polling averages for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. You may read about my aggregation methods here, but a key difference between my algorithm and those used by some other polling aggregators (e.g. RealClearPolitics) is that I use every publicly-available poll (as listed on FiveThirtyEight.com) released since … Continue reading Looking in the mirror, 2020 Democratic nomination polls edition
August 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
It has been just over two weeks since the second Democratic presidential nomination debates, so it is time for an updated assessment of the relative position of the 23 declared candidates remaining. Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel ended his campaign on August 6, 2019, and it appears former Colorado John Hickenlooper will end his bid … Continue reading August 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
July 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
With the second Democratic presidential nomination debates scheduled for the evenings of Tuesday, July 30, 2019 and Wednesday, July 30, 2019, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the 25 declared candidates; because United States House of Representatives member (“Representative”) Eric Swalwell of California dropped out of the race on July 8, … Continue reading July 2019 update: 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Road trips and the fine art of tipping (Epilogue)
Following the election of Republican Donald J. Trump as president of the United States in 2016, I immediately began to donate small sums to a wide variety of organizations and political candidates. And as the race to the be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee began to take shape, I began making $10 donations to my … Continue reading Road trips and the fine art of tipping (Epilogue)
Happy July 4th! Here is my American story.
Happy 4th of July! Let me first note, transparent in my pedantry, the Declaration of Independence was actually approved on July 2, 1776. Nonetheless, it was dated July 4, 1776 and signed August 2, 1776. Allow me next to relate I was physically born (at long-since-closed Metropolitan Hospital, then at 3rd and Spruce) roughly 1/5 … Continue reading Happy July 4th! Here is my American story.
The first 2020 Democratic debates, or Why the Trump campaign should be nervous…
With the first Democratic presidential nomination debates scheduled for Wednesday, June 26, 2019 and Thursday, June 27, 2019, here is an updated assessment of the relative position of the 25 declared candidates; former United States House of Representatives member (“Representative”) Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania declared his candidacy June 23, 2019). For details on how I … Continue reading The first 2020 Democratic debates, or Why the Trump campaign should be nervous…
June 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
Here is the June 2019 photograph (Marshall Point Lighthouse) on my “Maine Lighthouses” Down East wall calendar. This photograph introduces my monthly update of this recent post, which addresses polling data for Democratic candidates for president in 2020. ********** I begin with the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, which I assess using my NSW-WAPA (national-and-state-weighted weighted-adjusted … Continue reading June 2019 update: Democratic presidential nomination and general election polling
A wicked early look at 2020 Senate and gubernatorial races
In recent posts, I began to take a wicked early look at the 2020 U.S. elections. First, I assessed the field of Democrats seeking to challenge Republican President Donald Trump in 2020. Then I turned to the 2020 presidential election itself, pondering how Democrats would potentially fare against Trump. Now I turn my attention to … Continue reading A wicked early look at 2020 Senate and gubernatorial races
Just Bear With Me... 