During the 2016 campaign, I was struck by two overlapping narratives. One was the intensity of animus toward Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, particularly among Republicans. This felt to me less like policy disagreement and more like personal vendetta. This animus expressed itself manufactured outrage (and HOURS of Congressional hearings) over the Islamist militant attack … Continue reading Clinton Derangement, or The Birth of a Notion
Category: Politics
Using Jon Ossoff polling data to make a point about statistical significance testing
I do not like the phrase “statistical dead heat,” nor do I like the phrase “statistical tie.” These phrases oversimplify the level of uncertainty accruing to any value (e.g., polling percentage or margin) estimated from a sample of a larger population of interest, such as the universe of election-day voters; when you sample, you are … Continue reading Using Jon Ossoff polling data to make a point about statistical significance testing
Two distinct restaurants. Two different conversations. One unanswered question.
I spent many nights in the liberated summer between high school graduation and enrolling at Yale taking long solo drives, exploring outer suburban Philadelphia. One night, meandering along Route 23, I saw this at the intersection with Route 113N in Phoenixville: My idea of heaven was, and remains, a 24-hour diner, though less so when … Continue reading Two distinct restaurants. Two different conversations. One unanswered question.
Jon Ossoff, Ed Markey, and the (near-)future of the Democratic Party
The runoff special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District (CD) is June 20, 2017. Democrat Jon Ossoff won the first round of voting on April 19, 2017, but with only 48.1% of the vote. Rather than have separate party primaries, all candidates in Georgia run in a single “jungle primary.” If nobody receives more than … Continue reading Jon Ossoff, Ed Markey, and the (near-)future of the Democratic Party
Democrats’ current generic ballot advantage is JUST enough to recapture the House in 2018
On June 5, 2017, the data journalism website fivethirtyeight.com introduced its new yardstick to assess which political party is winning the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives (House) after the 2018 midterm elections. This tool is a weighted average of “generic ballot polls,” polls that ask respondents some variant of the question “If the … Continue reading Democrats’ current generic ballot advantage is JUST enough to recapture the House in 2018
Democrats need to capitalize on gubernatorial election opportunities in 2017 and 2018
Having previously analyzed Democratic prospects in the 2018 midterm elections for U.S. House (House; here and here) and Senate (Senate; here), I now examine what I think are the most important elections for both parties in 2017 and 2018—those for governor. In an age of increasing partisan polarization and Congressional gridlock, governors have emerged as … Continue reading Democrats need to capitalize on gubernatorial election opportunities in 2017 and 2018
A wicked early look at the 2018 U.S. Senate Elections
In two previous posts (here and here), I obliquely assessed the Democrats’ prospects for recapturing the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018. I will now do the same for the U.S. Senate (Senate), which Republicans now control 52-48 (including two Independents who caucus with the Democrats). ********* Just bear with me while I review some … Continue reading A wicked early look at the 2018 U.S. Senate Elections
The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018
Alaska and Hawaii became the 49th and 50th states, respectively, in 1959. As a result, 1962 was the first election year to reflect the current U.S. House of Representatives (House) configuration of 435 seats allocated across 50 states[1]. These were also the first House elections since John F. Kennedy won the presidency two years earlier. … Continue reading The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018
Gerrymandering is a bigger problem for democracy than for Democrats
It is an article of faith among Democrats and some political commentators that a major barrier to Democrats retaking control of the House of Representative in 2018, or even in 2020, is Republican gerrymandering following the 2010 U.S. Census. Republicans, the narrative goes, used the governor’s mansions and state legislatures they controlled after the 2010 … Continue reading Gerrymandering is a bigger problem for democracy than for Democrats
Degree or not degree? That is (still) the Democrats question.
Democrat Hillary Clinton, despite winning a 2.1 percentage popular vote margin over Republican Donald Trump, lost the presidency in 2016 because she lost the combined 46 electoral votes (EV) from three states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Clinton lost these states by a combined 77,744 votes, and an average of 0.57 percentage points, based on data … Continue reading Degree or not degree? That is (still) the Democrats question.
Just Bear With Me... 