We turn now to the 11 gubernatorial elections scheduled for 2024. Currently, there are 27 Republican governors and 23 Democratic governors; Democrats have not held a majority of governor’s mansions since 2010.
As with my recent preview of the 2024 Senate elections, this “somewhat wicked early” look is based almost entirely on “fundamentals,” or what one would expect an election to look like based upon a combination of state partisan lean (using my 3W-RDM), incumbency and national partisan lean. It is the state of the race before campaigning by specific candidates.
In that Senate elections preview, I discussed changes to the ways in which I estimate incumbency advantage and national partisan lean. We start with the latter. For these elections, I define national partisan lean as a weighted average of the difference between the Democratic and Republican percentages of all votes cast for governor in each of the last six two-year gubernatorial cycles.[1] Presidential election years are highlighted in bold italics. New Jersey and Virginia hold gubernatorial elections in the year after a presidential election, while Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi do so in the year before a presidential election. Thus, data from the former two elections are included with those from gubernatorial elections held in presidential years, while data from the latter three elections are included with those from gubernatorial elections held in midterm years. New Hampshire and Vermont hold gubernatorial elections every two years. Election data – unless otherwise specified – come from Dave Leip’s invaluable website.
2022 = D+0.3 percentage points (“points”)
2020 = D-7.0 points
2018 = D+3.5 points
2016 = D-2.6 points
2014 = D-4.4 points
2012 = D-3.6 points
For every gubernatorial election, meanwhile, I calculate the difference between expected margin of victory – the sum of state and national partisan lean in an election year – and actual margin of victory in a specific election. For example, Democratic Governor Kathy Hocul won reelection in New York (D+20.2) in 2022 by 6.4 points. However, a Democrat “should” have won that election by 20.2 + 0.3 = 20.5 points, suggesting Hochul “underperformed” expectations by 20.5 – 6.4 = 15.1 points. This is an especially large underperformance given that incumbents typically overperform expectations.
As with Senate elections, I calculated a weighted average of the difference between expected and actual margins for gubernatorial elections with no incumbent.[2] Democratic candidates for governor have overperformed expectations by an average 7.1 points in 59 open seats since 2011; this is the “open seat advantage” I use for the eight (or nine, depending on what Republican Governor Phil Scott of Vermont decides) open elections for governor in 2024. Because no incumbent Democrat governor is running for reelection in 2024, I did not calculate an incumbency advantage for Democrats. As of January 2024, no Republican governor who has decided to run for reelection has done so before, their “incumbency advantage” is the weighted average of the average amount by which incumbent Republican governor margins differed from expectations over last six two-year cycles.[3]
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We start with the Democrats. Table 1 below summarizes the fundamentals for the 3 governor’s mansions Democrats are defending in 2024.
Table 1: 2024 Gubernatorial elections – 3 Democratic open seats:
| Name | State | Run 2024? | 3W-RDM | INC | Nat Lean | Expected | Last margin | First elected/apptd | P (Dem win) |
| Jay Inslee | WA | No | 13.7 | 7.1 | -3.2 | 17.7 | — | N/A | 99.7% |
| John Carney | DE | No | 12.8 | 7.1 | -3.2 | 16.8 | — | N/A | 99.5% |
| Roy Cooper | NC | No | -5.8 | 7.1 | -3.2 | -1.8 | — | N/A | 34.7% |
As noted, three Democratic governors – John Carney of Delaware, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, and Jay Inslee of Washington – are retiring after two, two and three terms, respectively. As of January 2024, no Republican has announced a run for governor of Delaware, making either state Lieutenant Governor Bethany Hall-Long or New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer the de facto next governor of Delaware. Washington’s Democratic state Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Member of the United States House of Representatives (“House”) Dave Reichert will likely advance to the November 5 general election out of the all-candidate primary to be held on August 6, 2024. Ferguson should be the heavy favorite, though two recent partisan polls show Reichert leading by an average 3 points in head-to-head matchups, albeit with 18% undecided. Even factoring in this very early polling, Ferguson is no worse than a 2-1 favorite.
In North Carolina, meanwhile, Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein will almost face Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson. This race starts with the tiniest edge for Robinson, who would be the state’s first black governor and who leads Stein by an average of one point in two recent polls (again, with about 18% undecided). However, Robinson has a history of inflammatory right-wing statements, which may not play well in a general election, so this election starts as a toss-up.
Democrat Josh Stein is currently even money to be the next governor of North Carolina.
Bottom line: While there could be an upset in Washington, Democrats will most likely lose zero or one governor’s mansions they currently hold.
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Turning to the Republicans, Table 2 below summarizes the fundamentals for the 11 seats they are defending in 2024; I present two scenarios for Vermont, using Scott’s 2020 (the one time he ran for reelection in a presidential election year) overperformance as his “incumbency advantage.”
Table 2: 2024 Senate elections – 8 Republican incumbents/open seats:
| Name | State | Run 2024? | 3W-RDM | INC | Nat Lean | Expected | Last margin | First elected/apptd | P (Dem win) |
| Phil Scott | VT | Yes | 28.9 | -61.8 | -3.2 | -36.1 | 41.1% | 2016 | 0.0% |
| No | 28.9 | 7.1 | -3.2 | 32.8 | — | N/A | 100.0% | ||
| Chris Sununu | NH | No | 1.2 | 7.1 | -3.2 | 5.2 | — | N/A | 76.9% |
| Mike Parson | MO | No | -19.0 | 7.1 | -3.2 | -15.0 | — | N/A | 0.6% |
| Eric Holcomb | IN | No | -19.6 | 7.1 | -3.2 | -15.6 | — | N/A | 0.4% |
| Greg Gianforte | MT | Yes | -20.8 | -5.9 | -3.2 | -29.9 | 12.9% | 2020 | 0.0% |
| Spencer Cox | UT | Yes | -27.6 | -5.9 | -3.2 | -36.7 | 32.6% | 2020 | 0.0% |
| Doug Burgum | ND | No | -35.4 | 7.1 | -3.2 | -31.4 | 40.5% | N/A | 0.0% |
| Jim Justice | WV | No | -41.4 | 7.1 | -3.2 | -37.4 | — | N/A | 0.0% |
As of January 2024, only two incumbent Republican governors – Spencer Cox of Utah and Greg Gianforte of Montana – have formerly declared their intention to seek reelection. Cox and Gianforte are overwhelming favorites to defeat State Representative Brian King and author-manufacturer Ryan Busse, respectively. Five Republican incumbent governors have declared they are not seeking reelection in 2024. In four of those states – Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia – the Republican nominee is a near-lock to win. These nominees are almost certainly United States Senator Mike Braun (R-IN), Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft (or, less likely, Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe), former North Dakota State Senator Tom Campbell, and either West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrissey or former West Virginia State Delegate Moore Capito.[4]
The open governor’s mansion in New Hampshire, however, is a strong pickup opportunity for Democrats, who start as roughly 3-1 favorites. That said, Republicans will likely nominate former United States Senator Kelly Ayotte, who leads Joyce Craig, the Democratic former mayor of Manchester, by six points in two 2023 polls (albeit with 17% undecided). Combining these two data points suggests this election is a toss-up.
Former Manchester, NH Mayor Joyce Craig is perhaps a slight underdog in her quest to become New Hampshire’s third female Democratic governor.
That leaves only Vermont, where Scott has overperformed expectations by an astonishing average of 61.4 points in his three reelection campaigns. If he chooses to seek a fifth two-year term, he is expected to win by around 40 points. If he chooses not to run, however, a Democrat would be heavily favored to be the next governor of Vermont. As of January 2024, only Vermont Commission on Women co-chair Esther Charlestin has declared her candidacy, though State Representative Caleb Elder and Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger have expressed interest.
Bottom line: Only the governor’s mansion in New Hampshire is remotely competitive, though Democrats will likely win the governorship of Vermont if Republican governor Phil Scott does not seek reelection. Thus, Republicans will lose between zero and two governor’s mansions.
Overall outlook. While Republicans could pull off an upset in Washington behind the relatively moderate Reichert, as of January 2024, only two of the 11 gubernatorial elections scheduled for 2024 are competitive. Democrats should like their chances in North Carolina against the controversial Robinson, while Republicans may have a small advantage in New Hampshire behind the far-better-known Ayotte. These two races will most likely be a wash.
The only other drama is in Vermont, where Scott wins if he runs for reelection (which is what I suspect will happen), and a Democrat likely wins if he does not.
Thus, while there is an outside change Democrats lose two governor’s mansions and an outside chance Democrats gain two governor’s mansions, the likeliest outcome is no net change.
Until next time…and if you like what you read on this website, please consider making a donation. Thank you.
[1] Weights: 2022 (3), 2020 (6), 2018 (2), 2016 (5), 2014 (1), 2012 (4). These electorates differ significantly between presidential years (average state partisan lean R+10.3) and midterm years (R+3.3). If I used my usual 5-3-1 weighting scheme only on the last three presidential election years (2020, 2016, 2012), the projected electorate would be D-5.2. As with Senate elections, I essentially split the difference between a typically Republican electorate in presidential election years in these states and a more neutral partisan environment.
[2] Same weights as above. Using only presidential election years yields a Democratic open-seat advantage of 9.9 points.
[3] Same weights as above. Republican “incumbency” advantages were 9.3 (2022), 5.8 (2020), 13.6 (2018), -1.6 (2016), 2.4 (2014), 10.0 (2012). Using only presidential election years yields a Republican incumbency advantage of “only” 3.8 points.
[4] Democrats will likely nominate former Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction (as a Republican) Jennifer McCormick; Missouri House of Representatives Minority Leader Crystal Quade; and Huntington, WV Mayor Steve Williams. No North Dakota Democrat has declared a run for governor as of January 2024.
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