In the wake of Democratic underperformance in the 2016 elections (losing the Electoral College, insufficient gains to win back the United States House of Representatives [House] or United States Senate [Senate], net loss of two governorships, hemorrhaging state legislative seats), various “autopsies” were released. Some autopsies reached conclusions that contradicted the finding of other autopsies … Continue reading Where do rank-and-file Democrats (and Independents) stand on issues right now?
Category: Polling
Using Jon Ossoff polling data to make a point about statistical significance testing
I do not like the phrase “statistical dead heat,” nor do I like the phrase “statistical tie.” These phrases oversimplify the level of uncertainty accruing to any value (e.g., polling percentage or margin) estimated from a sample of a larger population of interest, such as the universe of election-day voters; when you sample, you are … Continue reading Using Jon Ossoff polling data to make a point about statistical significance testing
Two distinct restaurants. Two different conversations. One unanswered question.
I spent many nights in the liberated summer between high school graduation and enrolling at Yale taking long solo drives, exploring outer suburban Philadelphia. One night, meandering along Route 23, I saw this at the intersection with Route 113N in Phoenixville: My idea of heaven was, and remains, a 24-hour diner, though less so when … Continue reading Two distinct restaurants. Two different conversations. One unanswered question.
Jon Ossoff, Ed Markey, and the (near-)future of the Democratic Party
The runoff special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District (CD) is June 20, 2017. Democrat Jon Ossoff won the first round of voting on April 19, 2017, but with only 48.1% of the vote. Rather than have separate party primaries, all candidates in Georgia run in a single “jungle primary.” If nobody receives more than … Continue reading Jon Ossoff, Ed Markey, and the (near-)future of the Democratic Party
The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018
Alaska and Hawaii became the 49th and 50th states, respectively, in 1959. As a result, 1962 was the first election year to reflect the current U.S. House of Representatives (House) configuration of 435 seats allocated across 50 states[1]. These were also the first House elections since John F. Kennedy won the presidency two years earlier. … Continue reading The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018
About those recent presidential approval polls…caveat emptor
During President Donald Trump’s recent combative press conference, he cited a new Rasmussen poll showing him at 55% approval. What the...? I thought. At first, I thought he had simply read the “disapprove” number as the “approve” number, because all of the presidential approval numbers I had been hearing (primarily from Gallup tracking polls) showed … Continue reading About those recent presidential approval polls…caveat emptor
Just Bear With Me... 