In a previous post, I implied that Hillary Clinton’s 2016 losses in five states won by Barack Obama in 2012--Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa—resulted from white voters without a college degree (14 percentage points less Democratic in 2016 than in 2012) averaging 44.4% of these states’ electorates, while white voters with a college degree … Continue reading Should Democrats look to the southeast and southwest? →

In a previous post, I proposed a “three-election weighted relative Democratic margin” (3W-RDM) for each state and the District of Columbia (DC). The “RDM” is the arithmetic difference between each state’s voting margin (% Democratic - % Republican[1]) and the national margin in a given presidential election. I calculated every state’s average RDM over successive … Continue reading A closer look at Hillary Clinton’s performance in five key states →

There was a great deal of talk during the 2016 presidential campaign about Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall” in the Electoral College, with “blue” the color news organizations use to denote states won by Democrats. The basis of this talk was simple. In general, states tend to vote similarly for president over time; the … Continue reading The Democrats’ 2016 “blue wall” thesis →