On June 5, 2017, the data journalism website fivethirtyeight.com introduced its new yardstick to assess which political party is winning the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives (House) after the 2018 midterm elections. This tool is a weighted average of “generic ballot polls,” polls that ask respondents some variant of the question “If the … Continue reading Democrats’ current generic ballot advantage is JUST enough to recapture the House in 2018
Category: House elections
The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018
Alaska and Hawaii became the 49th and 50th states, respectively, in 1959. As a result, 1962 was the first election year to reflect the current U.S. House of Representatives (House) configuration of 435 seats allocated across 50 states[1]. These were also the first House elections since John F. Kennedy won the presidency two years earlier. … Continue reading The AHCA vote likely increased Democrats’ chances of winning the U.S. House in 2018
Gerrymandering is a bigger problem for democracy than for Democrats
It is an article of faith among Democrats and some political commentators that a major barrier to Democrats retaking control of the House of Representative in 2018, or even in 2020, is Republican gerrymandering following the 2010 U.S. Census. Republicans, the narrative goes, used the governor’s mansions and state legislatures they controlled after the 2010 … Continue reading Gerrymandering is a bigger problem for democracy than for Democrats
