Should Democrats look to the southeast and southwest?

In a previous post, I implied that Hillary Clinton’s 2016 losses in five states won by Barack Obama in 2012–Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa—resulted from white voters without a college degree (14 percentage points less Democratic in 2016 than in 2012) averaging 44.4% of these states’ electorates, while white voters with a college degreeContinue reading “Should Democrats look to the southeast and southwest?”

A closer look at Hillary Clinton’s performance in five key states

In a previous post, I proposed a “three-election weighted relative Democratic margin” (3W-RDM) for each state and the District of Columbia (DC). The “RDM” is the arithmetic difference between each state’s voting margin (% Democratic – % Republican[1]) and the national margin in a given presidential election. I calculated every state’s average RDM over successiveContinue reading “A closer look at Hillary Clinton’s performance in five key states”

About those recent presidential approval polls…caveat emptor

During President Donald Trump’s recent combative press conference, he cited a new Rasmussen poll showing him at 55% approval. What the…? I thought. At first, I thought he had simply read the “disapprove” number as the “approve” number, because all of the presidential approval numbers I had been hearing (primarily from Gallup tracking polls) showedContinue reading “About those recent presidential approval polls…caveat emptor”

The Democrats’ 2016 “blue wall” thesis

There was a great deal of talk during the 2016 presidential campaign about Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s “blue wall” in the Electoral College, with “blue” the color news organizations use to denote states won by Democrats. The basis of this talk was simple. In general, states tend to vote similarly for president over time; theContinue reading “The Democrats’ 2016 “blue wall” thesis”

NOIR CITY 15: How Noir is “NOIR?”

My affiliation with the Film Noir Foundation (FNF) began with a “Henchman”-level donation in March 2010. I had learned about the FNF through Eddie Muller’s film noir DVD commentaries (Muller, the “Czar of Noir,” is President and Founder of the FNF), but it was not until I received my free t-shirt and NOIR CITY 8Continue reading “NOIR CITY 15: How Noir is “NOIR?””